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MUGGY DAYS: Looks like Alabama will be in a rather soupy, muggy airmass through Thursday with the daily chance of scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms. They will be most numerous during the afternoon and evening hours, but we can’t rule out a late night or morning shower along the way with some small scale boundaries around. Looks like afternoon highs will be generally in the mid 80s with only a limited amount of sunshine.
We will maintain a chance of scattered showers and storms on Friday, but our old friend the GFS continues the trend toward drier conditions over the weekend; but I still think we will need to mention at least a chance of widely scattered showers and storms on Saturday and Sunday, with highs not too far from 90.
NEXT WEEK: With the models continuing to shift south on Ike, that lessens the chance of that moisture curving up in here next week; the 00Z GFS looks pretty dry Monday and Tuesday now.
IKE STAYS SOUTH: How many times have we written this in recent days? Models are trending south on Ike again, and the NHC has adjusted their track again, with the center line headed in the general direction of the lower Texas coast below Corpus Christi. I have to wonder if this thing will ever get north of 25N now, and I also have to wonder if the southward shift will continue and this thing winds up going into the Mexican coast below Brownsville.
The one concerning thing is the intensity forecast from the GFDL and the HWRF; both show Ike as a very dangerous hurricane at the time of landfall (see the Weather Xtreme video for the graphics). The eyes of Texas will stay focused on Ike this week.
ELSEWHERE IN THE TROPICS: Very, very quiet. The MJO pulse is fading, and you have to figure it might be much quieter in the Atlantic basin in the next week or two. Not saying the season is over; you always have some interesting late season systems in October, but no doubt the parade of tropical storms is winding down for now.
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I am headed over to Pickens County today to speak to a senior adult group in Aliceville; look for the next Weather Xtreme video here by 3:30 this afternoon. Enjoy the day!
