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TRENDING DRIER AROUND HERE: We will still mention some risk of afternoon showers and storms here in Alabama today and tomorrow, but they should be fewer in number as an upper ridge begins to build, and we get in the sinking air around the periphery of Ike. By the time we get to the weekend, our weather looks hot and mostly dry with the ridge taking over; we should rise into the low 90s Saturday and Sunday, and any showers will be few and far between.
The ridge remains parked over the Southeast U.S. early next week, with 5940 heights at 500 mb showing up over North Florida Monday. That means temperatures will remain above normal, and the chance of an afternoon shower will remain small Monday and Tuesday. We might see a bump in the number of scattered showers and storms by Wednesday and Thursday as a moisture axis/front extending south from the remnant circulation of Ike moves into the state.
EYEING IKE: Interesting that surface winds have not increased in Ike overnight despite the drop in central pressure. One thing to note is that the wind envelope is very large; hurricane force winds extend out over 100 miles, and tropical storm force winds over 200 miles from the center.
You have to assume Ike will be a major hurricane at the time of landfall (category three or higher) with favorable outflow aloft and relatively warm SSTs in the path of the storm.
The official NHC track brings Ike into the Texas coast about 50 miles south of Galveston early Saturday morning as a category three storm. The GFDL is a little to the right, and even deeper; if that model is correct then Houston, we have a big problem. (See the Weather Xtreme video for all the graphics). The HWRF is an outlier now to the left, with landfall not far from Corpus Christi.
This is high drama; watch the video and you can see the big upper trough over the western U.S…. that will turn Ike to the north, and where that turn happens will determine the impact of this storm on one of the largest cities in the U.S. (Houston). Ike is now north of 25N, no doubt this one will recurve into the westerlies, and there is no doubt the risk to Galveston and Houston is now very significant. Remember, the big storm surge and most of the problems will be along and to the right of where the center crosses the coast.
Evacuations are beginning this morning along a wide stretch of the Texas coast from Padre Island to Galveston Island. At least one million people will evacuate during the next 24 hours.
The guys at HPC show the heaviest rain axis from Ike running from Houston to Dallas to Tulsa, with amounts of 10 to 15 inches in this general area. Then, the deeper moisture from Ike moves east toward Indianapolis early next week, passing north of Alabama.
THE LAND OF VOODOO: Well… still no sign of cold air moving into Alabama on the 00Z GFS. Yeah, this is very early in the season, but we usually get that first good cold front of fall by the end of the month.
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Headed over to Cleburne County in East Alabama this morning with Jason Wright of the National Weather Service… I will be back by early afternoon, and the next Weather Xtreme video should be posted here by 3:30 or so. J.B. will keep the blog updated with fresh information on Ike…
