Watching the 00Z guidance coming in… the 00Z NAM has completed to 48 hours, and unfortunately it shows the eye of Ike moving into the Texas coast just south of Galveston shortly after midnight tomorrow night…. pretty much in line with the NHC track. Most other tropical model output is in decent agreement. Houston does have a very big problem.
I doubt if NHC will adjust their track on the 10:00 advisory, due out within the hour.
The biggest mystery is the structure of the hurricane along with the intensity between now and landfall. Outflow seems better established now in all quadrants, and IR satellite images show cloud tops cooling during the last 90 minutes.
Ike has been moving over a cool eddy today… it will be over warmer SSTs tonight and tomorrow, and I still believe the inner core has a good chance of becoming tighter by the time of landfall…. meaning a major hurricane at the time of landfall with a remarkable hurricane force wind diameter of almost 230 miles.
But, remember, Ike has been a storm known for surprises, and we have to wonder if the ole boy has one more trick up his sleeve before landfall. We continue to wait and watch as 1.5 million people move inland.
I will have a long discussion and the next Weather Xtreme video here by 7:00 a.m. tomorrow; J.B. and Bill will have occasional updates between now and then.
