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COOLEST NIGHT SINCE THE SPRING: The GFS MOS is printing 50 degrees for Birmingham tonight, while the NAM is showing 55. We all know this is not a “one number” place when forecasting lows on a clear, calm night, and we figure the spread will be from 48 to 57 (48 for the coldest valleys, 57 on the ridge tops). Right now our forecast is showing 52 for Birmingham early tomorrow; if we go that low it will be the coolest temperature since May 17 when our low was 46.
THE DAYS AHEAD: Dry is the word, not only in the short term, but the medium range as well. Quite frankly, the 12Z GFS run suggests no major rain threat for Alabama for the next 16 days. We have had many questions about weddings, fall festivals, arts and craft shows, and the NASCAR weekend at Talladega… while there is no real skill in a specific forecast beyond seven days (that is why we call it voodoo land), it sure looks like the dry and pleasant weather will hold well into October. Just keep in mind the risk of forest fires will be increasing as the dry conditions continue.
NEXT WEEK: Still looks like the coolest air so far this season will arrive in about one week; looks like highs drop into the low 70s and lows in the upper 40s by Thursday and Friday of next week with a deep upper trough forming over the eastern U.S.
EAST COAST MISCHIEF: A hybrid low just off the coast of the Carolinas will bring very windy and wet weather to the mid-Atlantic coast through Friday; I doubt if this becomes a true, warm-core tropical system, but it will be just like a tropical storm for the coasts of North Carolina, Virginia, and Delaware. And, the tropical system north of Hispanolia is moving north, and could become a tropical depression or storm during the next few days. It will be close to the New England coast over the weekend. Both of these systems will not impact Alabama weather directly.
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I am headed out for a live weather shot at 5 and 6 from the Alabama State Fair in Pelham… look for the next Weather Xtreme video here by 7:00 a.m. tomorrow…
