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ALABAMA WEATHER TURNS WET: We will highlight periods of rain and a few thunderstorms through tomorrow as a dynamic upper trough approaches from the west. The NAM is still very wet with 2.55″ at Birmingham, and the HPC QPF chart also suggests 2 to 4 inches of rain here. The GFS is printing 1.75″.
All of this seems too aggressive based on radar trends, but I think we safely promise one inch of rain for most Alabama communities, and lets hope we get those higher totals.
A few thunderstorms are likely during the rain event, but severe weather seems unlikely because of the lack of instability. Looks like we will stay in the 60s tonight and tomorrow as the rain falls with little surface based CAPE.
The rain should end from west to east tomorrow evening as drier air begins pushing into the state.
END OF THE WEEK AND THE WEEKEND: Our weather still looks dry Thursday through Sunday. We note the GFS is hinting at an easterly flow on Saturday and Sunday with some hint of Atlantic moisture showing up, but we will keep the forecast dry with highs mostly in the low 80s.
NEXT WEEK: The 12Z run of the GFS pushes a very dynamic upper trough over the northern U.S., well to the north of Alabama. The trailing front promises to bring showers to our state late Tuesday and Tuesday night, but with the best upper support so far north, it doesn’t look like a big rain event for now.
TROPICS: Marco (POLO) is inland over Mexico, and the rest of the Atlantic basin is quiet for now.
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I had a great time seeing the 6th graders today at Cullman East Elementary… be looking for them on the KIDCAM today at 5:00 on ABC 33/40 News. The next Weather Xtreme video will be posted by 7:00 a.m. tomorrow… and J.B. will keep you posted on the progress of the rain across our fine state.
