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CHANGES AHEAD: Birmingham is reporting 78 degrees at 2:00… guidance has been way too warm in recent days (the GFS had predicted 88 today!). Makes us wonder if the guidance is also too warm for the weekend… one way or another, a cool change is ahead.
The cold front will bring a chance of showers to Alabama late tomorrow, tomorrow night, and into Friday morning. No big rain event; most spots should see a quarter-inch or less. The NAM is printing only 0.05″ for Birmingham, while the GFS is showing 0.08″. The best chance of a shower will come from about 4:00 p.m. tomorrow through 9:00 a.m. Friday.
The high Friday will be close to 70 degrees with a cool north breeze kicking in during the day. The sky will clear Friday night, and temperatures should fall into the 50s for the high school football games. Most folks will need a sweater or light jacket.
THE WEEKEND: I still figure highs over the weekend will be close to 70 on Saturday, with low 70s on Sunday; early morning lows will be down in the 40s. A fine fall weekend indeed.
NEXT WEEK: Still looks like potential for a good rain event toward the end of next week; the 12Z GFS suggests the rain will come late Thursday, Thursday night, and possibly into Friday morning (October 23-24).
VOODOO LAND: Check out the Weather Xtreme video and see the long wave trough over the central U.S. around October 27; this would bring a nice rain event and much colder air. I do think that happens, we just don’t know exactly when. Don’t surprised to see frost on the pumpkins before Halloween this year.
TROPICS: Hurricane Omar will cross the Virgin Islands tonight, and head out into the open Atlantic. No threat to the U.S. mainland. And, in the western Caribbean, tropical depression 16 will move into Central America; it has a chance to become Tropical Storm Paloma before making landfall. Again, no threat to the U.S. mainland.
STORM ALERT XTREME: Want to be trained as a storm spotter? Want to join the ABC 33/40 Skywatcher team? Our annual training event, Storm Alert Xtreme, is coming up on Saturday November 15 at the BJCC during the annual Birmingham International Auto Show. You will be trained by the best SKYWARN trainer in the nation, our own Brian Peters (he has trained over 6,000 Alabama storm spotters over the years), and learn from one of the most brilliant weather researchers in the country, our own Dr. Tim Coleman. We encourage all of our Skywatchers to attend this every year; you simply cannot get enough training. We will begin at 9:30, and be out by 3:30. And, everyone that attends Storm Alert Xtreme gets free admission to the Alabama International Auto Show. There is no admission charge, and no need to register. Just show up, but get there early for a good seat. We had a packed house last year.
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