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ANOTHER SUPERB DAY: Great weather continues across our state today with a sunny sky and a high in the mid 70s this afternoon. Very similar weather tomorrow with a few scattered clouds around.
TO THE WEST: A major storm consisting of a vertically stacked low will develop over the nation’s mid-section tomorrow. Check out the beginning of the AFD (area forecast discussion) from the NWS in North Platte, NE:
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
318 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2008
.DISCUSSION…
…POTENTIALLY CATASTROPHIC WINTER STORM DEVELOPING ACROSS WCNTL
NEB…
THE GFS…ECMWF…NOGAPS AND GEM CONTINUE TO FCST A MASSIVE
OCCLUDED STORM DEVELOPING WEDNESDAY THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY. THE
LATEST SOLNS INDICATE 24 TO 36 HOURS OF STRONG TO HIGH WINDS
DEVELOPING WEDNESDAY AND CONTINUING THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.
H850 WINDS ARE NOW RUNNING 40 TO 55KT DURING THIS TIME FRAME. 500M
AGL WINDS REACH 40KT LATE WEDNESDAY WHICH EQUATES TO SUSTAINED 35
TO 40 MPH WINDS AT THE SFC. AS EXPECTED…SOME OF THE MAV GUIDANCE
IS NOW INDICATING SUSTAINED 30 TO 40 MPH SFC WINDS ACROSS WRN NEB.
ADDITIONALLY THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE COOLED SLIGHTLY INDICATING AN
EARLIER CHANGEOVER TO SNOW WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE QPF FIELDS IN THE
ECMWF AND GFS ARE VERY SIMILAR SHOWING 1 TO 2.5 INCHES OF QPF. THE
OFFICIAL FCST FOLLOWS THE GFS QPF BUT CUTS THE SNOW TOTALS IN HALF
WITH UP TO 11 INCHES OF SNOW FCST. HPC SUGGESTED 15 TO 18 INCHES OF
TOTAL SNOW BUT THIS HAS BEEN DISCOUNTED FOR THE TIME BEING.
THE COMBINATION OF STRONG OR PERHAPS HIGH WINDS…
HEAVY WET SNOW AND FALL FOLIAGE REMAINING ON THE TREES RAISES THE
POTENTIAL FOR SPORADIC AND POSSIBLY EVEN WIDESPREAD POWER OUTAGES IN
SOME AREAS.
You don’t hear about catastrophic winter storms in mid-October that often!
THE ALABAMA IMPACT: The storm will move slowly to the east/southeast, and we still believe the bulk of the rain here in Alabama will come Thursday night and Friday. The latest QPF graphics from HPC suggest one inch of rain for most of our state, and based on the dynamic strength of the system that sure sounds correct to me. Most of the rain should fall from around 6:00 p.m. Thursday to 12:00 midnight Friday night. There could be some thunder involved, but we don’t expect any strong to severe storms due to a cool and stable boundary layer.
Folks will probably have to break out the rain gear for Friday night high school football games for the first time this season.
WHAT ABOUT THE WEEKEND: The deep upper low will pass north of Alabama Saturday and Sunday, but the very cold air aloft associated with the system will bring some potential for showers, especially over the Tennessee Valley. Our ongoing forecast does not mention rain for the weekend, but on second thought I might want to introduce at least some risk of a shower both days, mainly north of Birmingham. Lets look at the 12Z GFS and we can make up our mind.
Temperatures over the weekend will be cool with highs only in the mid 60s.
SMOKY MOUNTAIN SNOW? The cold core upper low could bring the first snow flakes of the season to the Great Smoky Mountain region of East Tennessee late in the weekend. Tis the season, you know…
NEXT WEEK: The GFS has backed off on the idea of widespread frost early next week, but I am not sure that is off the table just yet. Lots of cold air is available up north; don’t be shocked if we do get down in the 30s by Monday or Tuesday morning of next week. For now the first half of the week looks dry.
VOODOO COUNTRY: The 00Z GFS is painting a strong upper trough through here around November 2 with some risk of strong storms; we need to remember that November is our fall tornado season and that kind of thing can happen easily this time of the year.
WEATHER BRAINS: Don’t forget you can listen to our weekly 30 minute netcast anytime on the web, or on iTunes. This is the show all about weather featuring many familiar voices, including our meteorologists here at ABC 33/40. You can even listen here on the blog; look for the player on the top left. Scroll down for the show notes for our new episode we recorded last night.
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STORM ALERT XTREME: Want to be trained as a storm spotter? Want to join the ABC 33/40 Skywatcher team? Our annual training event, Storm Alert Xtreme, is coming up on Saturday November 15 at the BJCC during the annual Birmingham International Auto Show. You will be trained by the best SKYWARN trainer in the nation, our own Brian Peters (he has trained over 6,000 Alabama storm spotters over the years), and learn from one of the most brilliant weather researchers in the country, our own Dr. Tim Coleman. We encourage all of our Skywatchers to attend this every year; you simply cannot get enough training. We will begin at 9:30, and be out by 3:30. And, everyone that attends Storm Alert Xtreme gets free admission to the Alabama International Auto Show. There is no admission charge, and no need to register. Just show up, but get there early for a good seat. We had a packed house last year.
I am headed in to ABC 33/40 this morning for an appearance on “Talk of Alabama” at 9:00…. they came out and shot some video from my fall baseball team’s game at Hoover East Sunday, so I guess you will see “Coach Spann” in action. We have actually had a great year; we are undefeated with one game to go.
I will crank out the next Weather Xtreme video by 3:30 this afternoon… enjoy the day!
