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Short version of the discussion: it’s going to get cold!
Longer version of the discussion: it’s going to get cold and stay dry with some pretty breezy conditions tomorrow.
Really long version of the discussion: There is a cold front headed across the Central US that will bring our coldest air for the Fall season along with the possibility of a freeze. Forecasting the freeze is a bit tricky as I tell you in a moment. For today, however, it’s looking like a nice Fall day with a chilly start but with lots of sun we should see temperatures climb into the lower 70s.
The cold front arrives overnight tonight bringing the leading edge of cold air advection and some gusty northwesterly wind with it. Tomorrow, Monday, will see sunshine again, but it will be a blustery day with temperatures struggling to reach the 60-degree mark – that’s about 10 to 15 degrees colder than today.
Tuesday morning we will dip into the lower and middle 30s for lows – definitely the coldest for the season so far. Here is the tricky part. It appears likely that the wind will stay up around 2 to 5 mph. If this happens, then frost is not as likely and the mixing of the air will likely keep us from reaching 32 over a large area excluding those normally colder sheltered valleys where the wind could drop off. Now it is possible that the wind will drop off right before sunrise so we should not see a prolonged period of cold.
Tuesday I don’t expect highs to get out of the 50s. As the deep upper trough moves steadily eastward, the coldest air is pushed off to the east, but here comes whammy number two – radiational cooling. The surface high settles in across the Southeast on Wednesday morning, so we are likely to see a second morning of freezing temperatures as the wind drops to calm and the earth loses heat. It should be a nearly perfect radiational cooling situation, so watch out!
We stay dry through the later part of the week. The GFS does show a front next weekend, but it appears that there is little moisture return ahead of it, so I think the forecast will remain rain free for now. And with a surface high migrating slowly eastward into the Atlantic Ocean, we should see the air mass moderate slowly with highs back to near the 70-degree mark by the end of the week – a value pretty close to typical for late October.
Not much action in voodoo country, but the GFS is showing our next serious shot at rain coming around November 9th.
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I will be filling in for Jason Simpson tomorrow morning so be sure to catch Good Morning Alabama for the latest information on the impending cold weather. And Storm Alert Xtreme is coming up November 15th at the BJCC from 9:30 am to 3:30 pm, so mark your calendar for a day of talking about severe weather and severe storm spotting.
Hope you enjoy one more warm day. Godspeed.
-Brian-
