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SOME RAIN, BUT NOT MUCH: Readers have known my concern that we won’t get too much rain during the next few days, and that concern continues to grow as the 12Z models look drier for Alabama through Friday. The NAM is now printing only 0.33″, while the GFS even drier with 0.24″. I really think we need to back off on the rain on our forecast and mention just the chance of a few passing showers tomorrow and Friday. Thunder also looks rather unlikely due to the lack of instability; both models show the lifted index remaining positive through Friday night.
COLD WEEKEND: A sharp change to colder weather will take place Saturday; we will struggle to get out of the 40s with an icy north wind. The weather stays cool Sunday and Monday with lows well down in the 30s; we will have the potential for a light freeze both mornings.
LOOKING AHEAD TO NEXT WEEK: Well… the 12Z GFS is back on the cold trough bandwagon for November 20… seems like this feature shows up on every other run. The latest model data suggests the coldest air so far this season Thursday of next week with a chance of snow flurries over the northern half of the state. More than likely, this will change around several times before we get there, but if it is still showing up by Friday it will give the idea some credibility. The GFS shows a warm up as we approach Thanksgiving the following week.
STORM ALERT XTREME: Want to be trained as a storm spotter? Want to join the ABC 33/40 Skywatcher team? Our annual training event, Storm Alert Xtreme, is coming up this Saturday November 15 at the BJCC during the annual Birmingham International Auto Show. You will be trained by the best SKYWARN trainer in the nation, our own Brian Peters (he has trained over 6,000 Alabama storm spotters over the years), and learn from one of the most brilliant weather researchers in the country, our own Dr. Tim Coleman. We encourage all of our Skywatchers to attend this every year; you simply cannot get enough training. We will begin at 9:30, and be out by 3:30. And, everyone that attends Storm Alert Xtreme gets free admission to the Alabama International Auto Show. There is no admission charge, and no need to register. Just show up, but get there early for a good seat. We had a packed house last year.
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I had a great time speaking to the 7th grade this morning at the new Helena Middle School; be watching for those kids on the KIDCAM today at 5:00 on ABC 33/40 News! The next Weather Xtreme video will be posted here by 7:00 a.m. tomorrow….
