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SOME RAIN AT TIMES: Clouds will linger across Alabama at least through tomorrow night, and we will maintain the chance of some light rain at times. Models are a little wetter this morning through the event; the NAM has ramped the total for Birmingham up to 0.76″, while the GFS is printing 0.83″. While rain for today and tonight should be light and spotty, the models do hold some hope for better rain coverage tomorrow thanks to a disturbed southwest flow aloft in advance of the cold front. However, a vort max over the northern Gulf still has the potential to produce a mass of convection that could disrupt the inflow into North Alabama and reduce our rain here. I still think it is safe to forecast one-half inch of rain, and let’s hope for more since Birmingham’s rain deficiency for the year continues to grow (around one-half inch now).
Temperatures will be warmer today and tomorrow with afternoon temperatures around 70, perhaps reaching the low 70s in spots tomorrow.
FRIDAY NIGHT LIGHTS: The models are pushing the cold front into Alabama tomorrow night, which means there will be a chance of showers during the high school football playoff games across the state. So, take the rain gear. As the front moves through northwest winds will increase, and temperatures should fall through the 50s.
OUR WEEKEND: Saturday will be a cold, blustery day. Snow flurries are possible down into Tennessee, and clouds could hang tough over the northern third of the state through the day. Areas north of U.S. 278 (Hamilton to Cullman to Gadsden) will most likely be under a cloudy sky all day with temperatures holding in the 40s. We will continue to play it optimistic for the I-20 corridor and forecast a clearing sky. Even where the sun returns, we will struggle to reach the low 50s with an icy north wind.
Sunshine returns statewide on Sunday; models are trending colder and it looks like we will at or below freezing at daybreak Sunday, followed by a high in the low 50s. We also have a chance of a light freeze early Monday morning.
FOOTBALL WEATHER: Auburn hosts Georgia at 11:30 Saturday (Raycom TV); the sky will become mostly sunny during the game with a kickoff temperature around 50 degrees. A strong north wind will gust as high as 30 mph at times. And, Alabama hosts Mississippi State Saturday night at Bryant-Denny Stadium (6:45 p.m. kickoff on ESPN); the sky will be clear with a kickoff temperature near 48 degrees, dropping to near 40 by the final whistle. You will need a warm jacket for this one. And, UAB will be in New Orleans to take on Tulane at 2:00 p.m. (radio only); we will promise no rain and a light wind since the game is in the Louisiana Superdome. Outside, the sky will be sunny with afternoon temperatures in the 60s.
VOODOO LAND: Well… our cold upper trough around November 20 has vanished again on the 06Z GFS. Pure model madness; seems like it shows up every other run. Lets see what the 12Z run does; I do think there is a decent chance we see a shot of much colder air in about a week. Stay tuned.. and watch the Weather Xtreme video for details.
STORM ALERT XTREME: Want to be trained as a storm spotter? Want to join the ABC 33/40 Skywatcher team? Our annual training event, Storm Alert Xtreme, is coming up this Saturday November 15 at the BJCC during the annual Birmingham International Auto Show. You will be trained by the best SKYWARN trainer in the nation, our own Brian Peters (he has trained over 6,000 Alabama storm spotters over the years), and learn from one of the most brilliant weather researchers in the country, our own Dr. Tim Coleman. We encourage all of our Skywatchers to attend this every year; you simply cannot get enough training. We will begin at 9:30, and be out by 3:30. And, everyone that attends Storm Alert Xtreme gets free admission to the Alabama International Auto Show. There is no admission charge, and no need to register. Just show up, but get there early for a good seat. We had a packed house last year.
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I have a nice road trip today; I am headed over to Carrollton in Pickens County for a speech at the Pickens Baptist Association for their volunteers. I will be back in the office by early afternoon, and the next Weather Xtreme video should be posted by 3:30 or so. Enjoy the day!
