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RIGHT NOW: Temperatures are actually warmer than forecast this afternoon, and nobody seems to be complaining. Birmingham is reporting a toasty 64 degrees at 2:00… but don’t get used to it.
MORE COLD AIR: The next shot of cold air blows in here tonight and tomorrow. We will drop into the upper 20s at daybreak tomorrow, and the high tomorrow will only be in the mid 40s despite a sunny sky. A brisk north wind will make it feel even colder.
We will begin the weekend with a hard freeze early Saturday, with lows in the 20 to 26 degree range for most places. And, once again, the colder valleys will visit the teens. The weekend will be dry with a gradual warming trend beginning Saturday afternoon; we should be close to 60 by Sunday.
NEXT RAIN: We will maintain a chance of showers on Monday with a passing front; moisture will be rather limited, and rain amounts should be generally a quarter-inch or less. The rain will end Monday night as another surge of cool and dry air arrives.
THANKSGIVING AND BEYOND: We are still very comfortable in forecasting dry and pleasant weather Wednesday and Thursday of next week; with cold mornings and comfortable afternoons. Looks like highs in the low 60s both days, right at average values for late November in Alabama.
The “beyond Thanksgiving” period is a time of voodoo and model madness. Watch the Weather Xtreme video for the 12Z GFS idea… it is pretty wild with a big rain event late Thursday night and Friday morning, followed by falling temperatures during the day Friday (November 28) and a chance of snow flurries that night.
This run now shows a dry and cold day on Saturday November 29, followed by a big surface low forming in the Gulf of Mexico, and a major Deep South snow storm on Sunday November 30. Before you go and buy up all of the milk, bread, Twinkies, and Yoohoo at local stores, this is no forecast, just model output that will change again in coming days. There is little consistency in model output during the post-Thanksgiving weekend, and accordingly no confidence in specific weather. We will be able to nail it down by Monday of next week, but it looks like we will have to be ready for just about anything.
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