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WET AFTERNOON: A nice band of rain is moving through our state this afternoon; that band is about 50 miles wide, and will continue pushing off to the southeast during the next 12 hours. I still figure everyone gets a quarter-inch of rain with this; some isolated spots getting one-half inch. Stable air means no thunder.
TOMORROW THROUGH THANKSGIVING DAY: Very nice weather can be forecast through the mid-week period; sunshine returns in full force tomorrow and Wednesday; the high tomorrow will be in the mid 50s, then we will approach 60 degrees on Wednesday. We will be below freezing at daybreak Wednesday with a clear sky and light wind. For Thanksgiving Day, we expect a partly sunny sky with a high in the mid 60s. We should note the average high for Birmingham in late November is 62, so having a high in the 60s on Thanksgiving Day is where we should be for this time of the year. Temperatures for the past two weeks have been well below average.
WET BLACK FRIDAY: Another rain event is shaping up for Friday; looks like this one will bring one-half to one inch of rain. A little thunder is possible, but the air remains rather stable and severe weather is not expected. The rain could very well linger into Friday night, so if you are going to a high school playoff game you will need the rain gear.
IRON BOWL: No change in our thinking; Saturday looks like a dry and cool day for the big game, with a mix of sun and clouds and afternoon temperatures in the upper 50s in Tuscaloosa. Looks like the rain in Alabama on Saturday will remain south of Montgomery, but we will have to watch this situation closely since models rarely do a good job in handling energy in the southern branch of the jet that comes through Mexico and across the Northwest Gulf of Mexico. Just be aware that the Saturday forecast is not carved in stone at this time.
SUNDAY: The 12Z run of the GFS brings a nice surge of rain northward into Alabama Sunday, and we will most likely need to make this adjustment in our public forecast. For now looks like wet end to the Thanksgiving Holiday weekend.
VOODOO LAND: No way we can deal with specific events with this kind of pattern. The GFS continue to show a split flow, with a Polar jet delivering cold air into the continental U.S., and a southern branch that has the potential to bring lots of mischief to the southern U.S. as we get deeper into December. This is a tricky pattern to handle even two days in advance; we won’t even try at a longer range. The idea, however, is that temperatures remain below average for the foreseeable future with occasional shots of precipitation thanks to that active southern branch. Watch the Weather Xtreme video to see how the 12Z GFS handles things.
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I had a great time visiting with the 3rd graders today at Cherokee Bend Elementary in Mountain Brook; be sure and watch for them on the KIDCAM today at 5:00 on ABC 33/40 News! The next Weather Xtreme video will be posted by 7:00 a.m. tomorrow…
