Getting set to record the radio weather cuts that will be used tomorrow morning on stations around Alabama and the nation. Quite a complex forecast…. which is subject to change in the Wednesday-Thursday time frame. But, here is the direction in which I am going:
TOMORROW: Partly sunny and warmer; high 58.
TUESDAY: Mostly cloudy, breezy, and warmer. Showers could develop during the afternoon. Then, a round of thunderstorms likely Tuesday night, with potential for damaging wind. Looks like a late night squall line; possibly in the 10:00 p.m. to 4:00 a.m. time frame. Instability is marginal (surface based CAPE values under 200 j/kg), but wind fields are pretty impressive (850 mb wind over 60 knots). It won’t take much to get those winds down to the surface. I should also note that heavy rain is likely; the latest NAM run is printing 2.96″ for Birmingham. High Tuesday 64.
WEDNESDAY: Rain tapers off during the morning with temperatures falling into the 40s during the day. A very chilly north wind.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY: Some hint of snow flurries Wednesday night or Thursday morning; probably no big deal. Gradual clearing Thursday with a high of only 46.
The cold air advection on Wednesday and Thursday is still not a lock, but there has been enough evidence of phasing to roll with this, especially considering the amount of cold air in place across the continent now.
Much much much more on the morning discussion and Weather Xtreme video, which will be up by 6:30 or so tomorrow morning.
