An all new edition of the ABC 33/40 Weather Xtreme video is available in the player below. You can subscribe to the Weather Xtreme video on iTunes by clicking here.
I always am not that confident in these Monday morning forecast packages I write; I do my best to stay “off the grid” on weekends, to spend some time with my family, so I come in here Sunday night for a quick glance at weather data, and try to get up extra early Monday morning to study the weather situation. Days like today are even more challenging with a complicated forecast, but let’s jump right in….
TODAY: A nice warm-up after a cold start; we should reach the upper 50s today with a partly sunny sky. To the west, SPC has a slight risk of severe weather in place for much of Northeast Texas.
TOMORROW: Southerly winds will increase during the day, gusting to 30 mph at times by afternoon. The sky will be generally cloudy, and a few showers could develop during the afternoon. We warm into the mid 60s by afternoon.
TOMORROW NIGHT/WEDNESDAY: The one thing that looks like a certainty is a beneficial rain event. The NAM is printing 2.79″ for Birmingham, while the GFS shows 1.54″. As usual, the truth is probably somewhere between; so there is a very real chance we will pick up two inches of rain. The greatest chance of the heavier rain will come from about 6:00 p.m. tomorrow until 9:00 a.m. Wednesday.
In addition to the risk of severe weather, you can’t ignore the possibility of severe weather. As usual in December, the one thing lacking is lots of surface based instability. However, surface based CAPE values do rise to over 200 j/kg late tomorrow night and during the pre-dawn hours Wednesday. Wind fields are strong; 850 mb winds (around 5,000 feet) are in excess of 50 knots with a strong low level jet developing over Alabama.
In terms of helicity (veering of wind direction with altitude), the 0 to 3 km helicity values are in excess of 300 m2/s2 over Northeast Alabama, so rotating updrafts are not out of the question. But, in this case the prime problem is usually strong winds with the squall line. Might even be a case where we have little thunder and lightning, but strong winds develop anyway.
TIMING: The best chance of severe storms/showers will come from around 10:00 tomorrow night through 6:00 a.m. Wednesday. A great reason to have a NOAA Weather Radio in your place; these late night/pre-dawn events happen more than you think here in Alabama. A few warnings could be required this time, mostly severe thunderstorm warnings, although a tornado warning is certainly possible.
WEDNESDAY TEMPERATURES: As the rain tapers off Wednesday morning, more cold air could move into Alabama. I figure we will drift from the 50s Wednesday morning into the 40s Wednesday afternoon with cloudy, breezy, and rather raw conditions. However, great model madness creeps in here, and the NAM shows no real cold air advection Wednesday, with temperatures reaching the 60s. Let’s take a look at the 12Z model runs later this morning for better clarity on this.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY: Yet another issue; the trailing southern stream trough cuts off somewhere between New Orleans and Mobile, and a surface low develops accordingly. This hints at some light rain over Alabama Wednesday night into Thursday morning. And, yes, we have seen some runs that hint at snow flakes over the northern half of Alabama. Again, let’s wait on the 12Z model runs later this morning for better clarity before we jump on any specific solution.
FRIDAY AND THE WEEKEND: These three days look cool and dry with highs mostly in the 50s, and morning lows at or below freezing.
VOODOO LAND: If we are having a tough time with the forecast for the middle of this week, that sure doesn’t bode well for any thoughts for late December. Watch the Weather Xtreme video for thoughts on the NAO and where we go from here.
WEATHER BRAINS: Don’t forget you can listen to our weekly 30 minute netcast anytime on the web, or on iTunes. This is the show all about weather featuring many familiar voices, including our meteorologists here at ABC 33/40. You can even listen here on the blog; look for the player on the top left. We will record a new episode tonight; it should be posted by 10:30 or so.
TWITTER: Don’t forget, you can follow our news and weather updates from ABC 33/40 on Twitter here. And, my personal Twitter feed is here if you want to keep up with my adventures in life. Twitter is a short messaging service you can receive via the web, cell phone, or IM.
I will have the next Weather Xtreme video posted here by 3:30 this afternoon…. enjoy the day!
