Some quick notes on the 12Z model runs:
*Still looks like beneficial rain for Alabama during the mid-week event; the new 12Z NAM shows 2.82″ for Birmingham.
*The 12Z NAM now ramps the surface based CAPE up to 345 j/kg tomorrow night, with a lifted index of -1.3 and a surface dewpoint of 64 F. 850 mb winds remains around 50 knots. Bottom line, still looks like a chance of high winds with the showers and storms. Best chance of strong to severe storms will come from around 10:00 p.m. until 6:00 a.m. (tomorrow night into early Wednesday morning).
*The NAM and the GFS are in better agreement, and we will need to adjust the temperatures upward for Wednesday and Thursday.
*The next impulse will spin up a surface low near the Gulf Coast Thursday, but temperatures now look too warm for any snow flakes. The GFS is now looking pretty wet for Thursday afternoon, Thursday night, and even into Friday morning with this feature.
Still a complicated forecast… details and a few video coming by 3:30 this afternoon…
