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NO ICE IN ALABAMA: As you can see from J.B.’s post below, the NWS in Huntsville has cancelled the freezing rain advisory for the northwest corner of Alabama as temperatures have leveled off around the Shoals. It is interesting to note the colder air has reached the Birmingham metro area; the Birmingham Airport is showing 43 degrees at 5:00… but in Shelby County at my place, which is south of Oak Mountain, I am 7 degrees warmer at 50. Seems like the cold air has moved down to I-59, but the boundary should back up later today as a warm front.
Mild air will win the battle this week, and we are still talking potential for record warmth Thursday.
THE WEEK AHEAD: Occasional rain will fall today and tomorrow with temperatures rising into the 60s this afternoon as a southerly flow continues. The showers might be more numerous tomorrow across the northern third of the state; South Alabama will be mostly dry as a warm ridge noses in here from the south. Thursday still looks like the warmest day; we will forecast a high of 75 degrees, one degrees shy of the record high for December 18 (76 in 1984). We should see some decent intervals of sunshine Thursday with only a small risk of a shower.
FRIDAY AND THE WEEKEND: We will bring back the risk of showers over on these three days; and the latest run of the GFS (the 06Z run we show on the Weather Xtreme video) now holds off the push of cold air until Sunday night. At this point, the frontal passage looks fairly clean, with a nice band of showers and possibly a thunderstorm Sunday night, followed by a one day change to cold weather on Monday.
CHRISTMAS WEEK: For now, Monday looks cold and dry with a high only in the low 40s, but the upper air pattern brings the warm ridge back in here from the south, and we see a quick moderating trend through mid-week. We are still projecting a relatively mild Christmas Day with potential for highs in the 60s. We see no sign of a White Christmas here, which is no surprise for Alabama. The upper air pattern (positive NAO) simply won’t allow the Arctic air down here for a long period of time. Don’t be shocked if we flip to a negative NAO at some point in early January, however. But, for now, no sign of any long or severe Arctic air invasion through the rest of 2008.
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I will be out at Greystone Elementary today to help with the annual teacher appreciation lunch, which is put together by Scott Dawson and a group of local churches. Always nice to see teachers getting the well deserved encouragement and a little midday break. The next Weather Xtreme video will be posted here by 3:30 this afternoon… enjoy the day!
