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FOGGY MORNING: Visibility is down to a fraction of a mile across a pretty good part of Alabama this morning; take some extra time to get to work. The fog will slowly lift as the day progresses.
WARM DECEMBER DAYS: While much of the nation is shivering in frigid air, Alabama will be the big exception in coming days. We will be well into the upper 60s today across North Alabama today as a warm front continues moving northward, scouring out all of the cold air that invaded the northern counties yesterday. South Alabama will reach the 70s again today, and we will continue to mention a chance of showers; looks like the best chance today will be along and north of I-20.
TOMORROW THROUGH SATURDAY: These three days will be warm, with highs at or over 70, with some intervals of sunshine possible. Most of the state will be dry tomorrow; a few showers could show up Friday and Saturday but model trends suggest any showers on these days should be widely separated. It will not feel like December.
COLD AIR SHOT SUNDAY AND MONDAY: I still think Sunday will be a day with falling temperatures. We could begin the day around 60, then falling through the 50s and 40s, perhaps winding up in the 30s by mid to late afternoon. Periods of rain are likely; still seems like the rain will be gone before the temperature reaches freezing, but it might be a close call for parts of North Alabama. We will need to keep an eye on this in coming days.
Monday looks cold and dry; the GFS says a high of 50; I say a high of 40. It doesn’t understand shallow cold air, and the model has been way too warm for most of the nation in the Arctic airmass this week. A good chance we see a decent amount of sunshine Monday as the cold, dry air takes over.
CHRISTMAS OUTLOOK: Watch the Weather Xtreme video for the details… but at this point looks like a pretty good rain event could be shaping up Wednesday, Christmas Eve, followed by a cool and dry Christmas Day. Yeah, yeah, yeah, we saw the 18Z run of the GFS yesterday, but for now that is an outlier (it suggested some chance of wintry weather Wednesday across North Alabama). And, remember, there is very little skill in a specific forecast beyond seven days (that is why we call it voodoo land), so we are still a day or two away before being really confident in a specific forecast for Christmas. Stay tuned.
INTO VOODOO LAND: I show the NAO forecast on the Weather Xtreme video; see how it trends neutral or even negative around the first of January. You have to wonder if the Arctic Express might pay a visit to the Deep South in early 2009.
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I have a road trip this morning up to Hamilton for a weather program at Hamilton Elementary School. That has been the frozen tundra of Alabama in recent days; they had several inches of snow last week, and were in the cold air yesterday. Should be warmer for my trip today; I always enjoy seeing the kids at Hamilton every year. I will be back in the office by early afternoon and the next Weather Xtreme video will be posted by 3:30 or so. Enjoy the day!
