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AN OASIS OF WARMTH: While much of the nation is shivering and dealing with cold, snow, and ice (see the Las Vegas pictures below), Alabama remains protected from the cold by a strong upper ridge nosing in here from the south. Dothan soared to 80 yesterday, and most places around here will wind up somewhere between 70 and 75 degrees today. If the sun peaks out for any length of time, we head for the upper 70s and break records.
As usual, we are starting the day with low clouds, fog, and drizzle, but significant rain is not expected today as the ridge takes over.
The weather won’t change much through Saturday; highs will be in the low 70s tomorrow and Saturday with only widely scattered showers, mainly over the Tennessee Valley of far North Alabama.
COLD AIR RETURNS: Watch the Weather Xtreme video and you will see the 06Z GFS is faster with our front Sunday; it shows the best rain Saturday night, ending Sunday morning. We won’t adjust the forecast until we see the 12Z model runs. One way or another, Sunday will be sharply colder. If the front does come through during the early morning hours, areas north of Birmingham won’t get out of the 30s with a very brisk north wind.
The 00Z GFS is printing 21 degrees for Birmingham Monday morning; I do think we need to adjust our numbers down. The northern third of the state most likely will begin Monday in the upper teens, and Monday will remain cold with a high only in the low 40s. The good news is that the sun should shine brightly Monday in the cold, dry air.
CHRISTMAS FORECAST: The current state of the NAO won’t allow cold air down here for long; we warm up nicely on Tuesday, and we are still looking at a nice rain event on Wednesday, Christmas Eve. The rain should end Wednesday evening, and at this time Christmas Day looks cool and dry with a high around 50, following a low close to 30. About what you expect in late December in Alabama. The day after Christmas looks dry as well.
VOODOO LAND: Chaos is the story in model output around the first of the year as we are getting into a pattern change; time will tell if an upper trough becomes established over the eastern U.S. to allow the Arctic Express entry down here into the Deep South. It will be interesting to watch developments in coming weeks.
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Look for the next Weather Xtreme video here by 3:30 this afternoon.. enjoy the day!
