The Storm Prediction Center has not issued any risk area for severe weather today and tonight, but there are some concerns that we might see a few severe thunderstorms tonight. Showers continued along a stalled warm front that was moving ever so slowly northward at late morning.
This puts much of Alabama in the warm sector where temperatures were around 70 and dewpoints were in the 60s. Some nice breaks in the clouds across south and central Mississippi and southern Alabama will help to allow for some additional heat. Morning soundings still indicate relatively weak lapse rates keeping stability to minimal values for now.
However, as a weak surface low now over northwestern Arkansas moves eastward along the frontal boundary, we could see conditions for some elevated thunderstorms to develop along the boundary in the warm sector. Like a lot of the scenarios we’ve seen in the Southeast lately, the shear values will be substantial, so if the thunderstorms can become rooted to the surface, we could see the development of isolated tornadoes along with the threat of damaging wind.
And if the cloud breaks allow additional surface heating, we could see increased instability and lapse rates. I believe the next SPC Day 1 Outlook is scheduled for around 2 pm, or 20Z, so we’ll be watching to get their take on the evolving weather pattern.
Southeast weather, always interesting and challenging.
-Brian-
