Our low pressure trough/surface front is located across South and Southeast Alabama this afternoon. It got left behind by yesterday’s powerful upper trough that zipped out to the northeast.
To the north, sun is prevalent from Columbus, MS to the Tri-cities of Northwest Alabama. South of that, it is cloudy until you get to Southeast Alabama where there is some sunshine.
Showers have continued through the morning and early afternoon in the vicinity of the trough. As Brian correctly noted this morning, a second upper trough is swinging quickly east out of the Plains and into the Mississippi Valley this afternoon. It is not as strong as yesterday’s trough, but it is enhancing showers and storms over Louisiana and southern Mississippi. Storms were occurring between Baton Rouge and St. Francisville. The advance guard has spread into Wilcox, Marengo, and Choctaw Counties.
The models are picking up on this activity, bringing it into Central Alabama tonight. Model trends indicate it might get as far north as a line from Livingston to Calera to Jacksonville, but radar trends indicate to me that it will make it to about the I-59 corridor.
Showers will be likely tonight now as far north as Tuscaloosa, Birmingham and Gadsden. Rain chances will decrease north of this line. Some storms will be included the further south you go, most likely south of that Livingston to Calera to Anniston line.
So, we will have to totally redo the forecast for tonight. The new package will be out shortly.
