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BIG TIME SOAKING: The great Alabama weather legend J.B. Elliott will list storm totals a little later this morning; I do note our Skywatcher in Gadsden reports 4.18″ during the last 24 hours. We also have reports of some road flooding in rural areas; take it easy this morning if you have a long drive through the countryside.
Our warm front continues to push slowly northward this morning. The rain has ended temporarily south of the front, which is roughly along a line from Greensboro to Birmingham to Gadsden. The heaviest rain this morning should be over the northern third of the state, or generally north of U.S. 278 (Hamilton to Cullman to Gadsden), while places like Tuscaloosa, Birmingham, and Anniston get a good break from the soaking rain. The NWS continues a flash flood watch for areas along and north of I-20.
We will be watching for any breaks in the cloud cover during the midday hours that could push temperatures toward the 70 degree mark. This, of course, will add to surface based instability, and will set the stage for strong to severe storms later today and early tonight.
SEVERE WEATHER RISK: SPC maintains a slight risk of severe weather for the southern two-thirds of Alabama for the afternoon and nighttime hours; watch the Weather Xtreme video for all of the details and graphics. As we have pointed out here, it is your classic low CAPE high shear winter event, so we don’t expect it to be a big red-letter day event like we can have in the spring. But, we always have to watch storms that fire in the highly sheared environment for signs of rotation.
The best chance of severe weather will be from about 3:00 until 9:00 p.m., and generally along and south of I-20. We will keep the blog updated with fresh information as the event unfolds.
COLD DAY TOMORROW: I think we hover in the 45 to 50 degree range all day tomorrow with a very chilly west to northwest wind. Clouds will linger much of the day, and some morning drizzle is possible. There might even be a snowflake or two up north over the Tennessee Valley in the colder air.
THURSDAY: A rather strong vort max rolls down across North Alabama Thursday, but with only limited moisture we will just forecast a partly sunny day. That disturbance might squeeze out a few sprinkles or flurries Thursday morning over North Alabama, but we will omit that for now since it looks like a very small chance.
FRIDAY AND THE WEEKEND: Friday should be a cool and dry day, but on Saturday will mention a chance of showers with a surface boundary passing through. Moisture will be on the low side, and it should not be a major rain event. Then, Sunday looks cool and dry.
ARCTIC AIR NEXT WEEK? Sure seems like the pattern favors a major change to cold weather for the eastern U.S. and the Deep South next week. Some runs of the GFS have shown decent winter storm potential for North Alabama, but it is way too early for any specific calls. The ECMWF has been pretty dry, in contrast to the GFS. But the message here is that there is potential for much colder air for the middle and latter part of next week, about 7 to 12 days from now. Stay tuned.
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I will plan on an afternoon Weather Xtreme video by 3:30 today, unless severe weather issues get in the way; we will keep the blog updated one way or another!
