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THANKS: We have received over 1,000 pictures in recent days of flooding and related weather here in Alabama… thanks to everyone who took the time to send them in. You can click on the “pictures” category on the left sidebar to see all of them at one time. Great job, and very helpful to us!
TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY: A few scattered clouds will be found today, but the day will be generally dry with a high in the mid to upper 50s. Lots of sun tomorrow with a high not too far from 60 degrees. A nice chance to dry out.
We continue a good chance of showers on Saturday with a surface front coming in here, but the moisture will be pretty limited and the rain should not be heavy at all. Then, Sunday looks cool and dry with ample sunshine.
ARCTIC SHOT NEXT WEEK: This is the weather headline; easily the coldest air so far this season will invade Alabama next week, and the big question involves the potential for ice at the end of the week.
The Arctic front comes in here Monday night; we are forecasting a high Tuesday only in the mid 30s, with mid teens by daybreak Wednesday. There could be a few flurries or patches or light snow with the initial surge, but that should not be a big deal.
The problem comes later in the week, with shallow cold air remains over North Alabama, and the southern branch of the jet stream brings energy in here for precipitation on Thursday and Friday. The cold air, most likely, will be only 2,000 to 3,000 feet deep, meaning the most likely form of precipitation would be freezing rain, which is rain that falls (liquid) with surface temperatures at or below freezing. This, in turn, coats everything with ice and can make for a big time mess in many ways. Once again, I stress, I am not not forecasting that; there is not enough skill to forecast something like this 7 to 8 days in advance. But, the idea is very much on the table. Watch the Weather Xtreme video and see how the 06Z GFS and the ECMWF handle this event; the latest run of the GFS hints the cold air might be deep enough at the end of next week for some snow over the Tennessee Valley, with freezing rain to the south. We really won’t be able to forecast this event with confidence until early next week.
VOODOO LAND: The 06Z GFS actually keeps us cold and unsettled into the last week of the month, we figure there will be some good moderation by the end of January, however, as the NAO flips positive.
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I will be in Tuscaloosa today speaking to the American Advertising Federation… the next Weather Xtreme video should be posted by 3:30 or so this afternoon. Enjoy the day!
