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Yep, everyone around here wants to blow right past the short term weather and focus on the winter storm potential Monday. But… let’s first discuss
TODAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND: The clouds simply did not go away last night; I note the 5:00 a.m. observation at Huntsville is even showing snow flurries. We will continue to be optimistic and forecast a partly to mostly sunny sky today once the morning clouds burn off. If the sun does break out, we will see a high around 50. Tomorrow should be colder as the upper trough sharpens; the high will be in the low to mid 40s with an icy north wind. There might be a few early morning flurries, but the moisture layer is really thin that that won’t be a big deal.
A hard freeze is likely Saturday morning with low 20s for most places, but teens for the colder valleys. We do note the models have trended warmer, and if that keeps up we will revise the numbers upward a bit later today. Nobody will have a problem with that. The weekend will be dry with highs mostly in the 50s.
WHAT ABOUT MONDAY: Once again, there is no need to get worked up about Monday’s weather at this stage of the game. Nobody knows where the rain/snow line will fall. I will make a “first call” on that line tomorrow afternoon, after I see the 12Z model runs. And, of course, that will be subject to change over the weekend.
All global models point to a developing low pressure center, supported by a strong upper trough, somewhere over the northern Gulf of Mexico, or around the Gulf coast. To the north of the low, in colder that is being pulled southward, somebody should see a really nice mid-winter snow across the Deep South. Watch the Weather Xtreme video and see the specific model output; the GFS and the EWMWF are hinting that the best snow will be in the broad area from Tupelo to Muscle Shoals to Nashville. But, that will change again. The best snow could be there, or maybe Huntsville, Birmingham, Knoxville, Atlanta, or even Montgomery.
A clear trend should develop during the next 24 hours, and again I will make a first call on the event (location and amount) tomorrow afternoon. To the south of the snow, a cold rain will fall with potential for around one inch.
ARCTIC INVASION TUESDAY: Our storm will roll up the eastern seaboard on Tuesday of next week, with a big time snow for the interior sections of the eastern U.S. And, very cold air will be pulled down into Alabama. We will have a hard time getting above freezing on Tuesday. The temperatures will slowly moderate over the latter part of the week.
BE NICE: I have no idea why potential for wintry weather brings out such emotion; I suggest it is even greater than the Alabama/Auburn kind of stuff you see on some sports blogs. Just a reminder… nobody is forecasting the placement of snow at this point, and for those who have ideas, no personal attacks, please. It is a strange society we live in these days.. your energy would be best spent on being, you know. You might even ling longer. I really don’t mind people attacking me, but let’s be nice to everyone else!
STORM ALERT 2009 KICKS OFF TONIGHT! Our first show on this year’s tour is tonight at 7:00 at Greene County High School in Eutaw. This is our annual severe weather awareness tour across Alabama; if you come you will see some great Alabama weather stories, meet the ABC 33/40 Weather team, and have a chance of winning some really nice prizes. No admission cost, and bring the whole family. The doors open at 5:00; be sure and come early for a good seat.
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I am doing a weather program this morning at Creekview Elementary School in Alabaster; I should have time to crank out an afternoon Weather Xtreme video before leaving on the helicopter for tonight’s Storm Alert 2009 show in Eutaw. Have a great day!
