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Before we get to Monday… in the short term today will be windy and colder with a high in the 40s, along with a partly to mostly sunny sky. The weekend will be dry with highs in the 50s tomorrow; looks like we break into the low to mid 60s Sunday. It will be a very nice day, and nobody in their right mind would even think of mentioning snow on Monday if all you did was look out the window Sunday afternoon and look at your back yard thermometer!
MAJOR WINTER STORM FOR THE EASTERN U.S. NEXT WEEK: Confidence is very high a very major winter storm will impact parts of the eastern U.S. early next week. Looks like mostly rain for the major east coast cities (Washington, Philadelphia, New York City, Boston, etc), but the Appalachians will be hammered with heavy snow, perhaps exceeding one foot in places. Cities like Pittsburgh will have some serious snow. But… this is an Alabama blog so….
WHAT ABOUT US? We will have an internal coordination chat at mid-morning with our group of meteorologists, and we are going to make the first call around 11:00, both on ABC 33/40 and here on the blog. I find it funny how some of the haters, trolls, and know-it-alls are bashing us for a forecast that has not been made yet. And, I caution you, it will only get worse when the “first call” goes out at mid-morning. Please play nice on the blog comments. You know the deal; no profanity, no personal attacks. I will never know to the day I die why people use weather forecasts as an excuse to get so hostile. Odd world we live in these days. Everyone take a deep breath and relax.
WATCH THE VIDEO: Scroll down for Dr. Coleman’s excellent model discussion, and take the time to watch the Weather Xtreme video, which details how the latest GFS run (06Z) has shifted south.
We have high confidence in this scenario now:
*Widespread rain develops across Alabama early Monday morning with temperatures in the low 40s. Those temperatures will drop during the day as low pressure deepens to the south of us, and moves northeast.
*The rain changes to snow during the day, initially over Northwest Alabama, with the rain/snow line dropping south. A few snow flakes will be possible as far south as Eufaula and Greenville before it all ends (don’t expect any accumulation down there, however). The change to snow in the Birmingham metro should be sometime between 12:00 noon and 6:00 p.m.
*All of the significant precipitation should be over by 9:00 p.m. Monday.
*Tuesday will be very cold, with temperatures mostly in the 20s with occasional snow flurries or showers.
HOW MUCH? Again, we are not ready for the “first call” yet. We want to see the 12Z set of models before that happens, and we will post it around mid-morning. Having said that, someone in the “sweet spot” will wind up with well over five inches of snow. Will the sweet spot be Nashville, Chattanooga, Atlanta, Gadsden, Birmingham… not ready for that call right now. This is indeed a classic set up for a major Southeast U.S. snow storm where the thickness values are low enough to support snow.
BITTER COLD TUESDAY: We are also confident Tuesday will be a very cold day, with temperatures in the 20s and off and on snow flurries. If by chance there is a snow cover, we could be close to 10 degrees at daybreak Wednesday, with temperatures near 0 across the colder spots of Northeast Alabama. If no cover, it won’t be quite that cold.
Again, take the time to watch the Weather Xtreme video for all of the nitty gritty details of this thing. And, be hanging around at mid-morning for the first call.
STORM ALERT 2009: What a great crowd last night at Greene County High School in Eutaw. We are thankful for the kindness and hospitality… we truly had a wonderful time. The next show will be Thursday of next week at the Trussville Civic Center at 7:00.
WEATHER BRAINS: Don’t forget you can listen to our weekly 30 minute netcast anytime on the web, or on iTunes. This is the show all about weather featuring many familiar voices, including our meteorologists here at ABC 33/40. You can even listen here on the blog; look for the player on the top left.
TWITTER: Don’t forget, you can follow our news and weather updates from ABC 33/40 on Twitter here. And, my personal Twitter feed is here if you want to keep up with my adventures in life. Twitter is a short messaging service you can receive via the web, cell phone, or IM.
After our mid-morning “first call”… I will be doing a weather presentation at Trace Crossings Elementary in Hoover… then on to Meadow View Elementary in Alabaster. The next Weather Xtreme video will be posted here by 3:30 this afternoon. Enjoy the day!
