Just finished an IM conference with our gang… J.B. Elliott, Brian Peters, Jason Simpson, Bill Murray, etc… time to get as specific as possible about Monday. Needless to say, this is a first call, and probably not as detailed as you like. It will change over the weekend, most likely.
IMPORTANT NOTES:
*During every Alabama snow event, or potential event, some are delighted, and others disappointed. The same thing will happen Monday. Back in December, our friends in Northwest Alabama enjoyed 4 inches of snow, while others had just a few flurries. Last January, parts of Dallas County near Selma had 5 inches, while the Birmingham Airport had only a trace. That is the way it works.
*With a classic Gulf low event, there is almost always a 50 mile wide band of heavier snow running generally from southwest to northeast to the north of the low. Identifying that band is a key part of this forecast. To the north, snow is very light, and to the south, it is mostly all rain. That is what we call the “sweet spot”. It remains to be seen if this will be a “classic Gulf low” event, however, and if a “sweet spot” will even develop at all.
*Live by the models, die by the models. I often think there is too much reliance on NWP (numerical weather prediction)… we must consider storms we have dealt with in the past with this upper air pattern across North America. Sometimes, the best way of predicting the future is looking at the past for good analogs. We due note, however, the 12Z run of the GFS has really shifted south on the surface low, putting the best dynamics down south where the air will not be cold enough for snow. An interesting shift, and the ECMWF and the NOGAPS have been trending to the southeast as well. The 12Z NAM still keeps deeper moisture over North Alabama as the colder air moves in late in the day.
HERE WE GO…….
*Rain begins after midnight Sunday night, becoming widespread by Monday morning statewide. Temperatures should be in the 40 to 45 degree range during the early morning hours Monday. It will be a chilly, rainy morning.
*Rain will change to snow during the day (mostly the afternoon) across North Alabama, with the rain-snow line moving from northwest to southeast. The change to snow will happen during these approximate times:
Muscle Shoals 12:00 p.m.
Haleyville 1:00 p.m.
Jasper 3:00 p.m.
Birmingham/Tuscaloosa 5:00 p.m.
Anniston/Gadsden 6:00 p.m.
*With the model madness introduced by the 12Z GFS, and the general eastward and southward shift on global models during the last 12 hours, we are not comfortable making any specific call about any potential axis of heavier snow in Alabama right now. The best policy in weather is to “tell them what you know, and don’t tell them what you don’t know”. I honestly do believe somebody in North Alabama (generally north of Birmingham) has a chance of a 1 to 3 inch snow, but there is not enough clarity to make a call on if and when it will happen right now. It is just a chance; the 12Z GFS run spooked us a bit with the far south look on the surface low.
*Most of the significant precipitation will be over by 8:00 p.m. Monday. A few lingering snow showers or flurries are possible later, however. A few snow flakes could be seen Monday night as far south as Montgomery and Auburn, but the odds of any accumulation there are very small for now.
*Tuesday will be very cold with snow flurries and a high only around 32. A major snow event is likely late Monday night and Tuesday up the Appalachians, from the Great Smoky Mountains of Tennessee and North Carolina north into western Pennsylvania. The major east coast cities will see mostly rain, with some snow as the system departs.
BOTTOM LINE: A cold rain Monday morning, changing to snow Monday afternoon or Monday evening. Some potential for light accumulation, especially north of Birmingham. We do not have enough confidence to forecast any heavier snow for now, but that could change.
I will have a fresh Weather Xtreme video by 3:30 or so…. stay tuned…
