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COLDER DAYS AHEAD: The weather continues to improve across Alabama this afternoon; rain lingers over East Alabama, but that should be out of the state within the next few hours. The sky has cleared over the northwest half of the state, and all of Alabama should have a fair and cold night with a low in the upper 20s for most spots.
Tomorrow will be a cool day with a mix of sun and clouds; a few sprinkles or flurries will be possible, but moisture is lacking and nothing significant is expected. The high will be in the 45 to 50 degree range. The coldest day of the week will come on Wednesday, when Arctic air settles in here. Looks like highs Wednesday will be in the 37 to 41 degree range with a brisk north wind. Then, Wednesday night, the bottom will fall out as the wind goes calm; most places will be somewhere between 17 and 22 by daybreak Thursday. Colder valleys across North Alabama could drop into the 10 to 15 degree range.
A warming trend begins Thursday afternoon; we will be close to 50 degrees with a good supply of sunshine. We have a great chance of rising into the low 60s Friday as the warming trend continues.
WEEKEND PEEK: At this point the weekend looks very comfortable, with highs in the 60 to 65 degree range along with a partly sunny sky both Saturday and Sunday.
THE LAND OF VOODOO: Seems like our next good rain event will be on Tuesday of next week (Feb 10). Down the road, the GFS is advertising a classic cold, unsettled pattern for the southern U.S. with a strong upper trough over southern California, sending out waves in a strong flow across the Deep South. With shallow cold air in place, that usually means ice for somebody; we all know what happened in Arkansas and Kentucky last week. We sure hope they don’t get it again. We will be watching with interest.
TROLLS, HATERS, AND KNOW-IT-ALLS: I have received about 50 e-mail messages today about those who comment on the blog. I guess we need to make it clear how this all works for those that are new… this blog allows a forum to discuss the forecast process. What we see, how we think. You get a window into our world, if you will. If you want to see our “public forecast”, that product is on the ABC 33/40 seven day forecast page here. If all you want is a simple discussion and seven day forecast, that is the place to get it. If you want really detailed posts on forecast confidence, various scenarios, and long range ideas, then this is the place. Everything you read here is NOT a forecast; we often throw out ideas we consider in the forecast process. Some ideas are tossed out and rejected, others are accepted and put into the forecast.
We made the “first call” on today’s event back on Friday at midday, and there was no evidence at that time that any heavy or significant snow would fall on Alabama, and we never mentioned that in the public forecast. We did, however, mention a good chance of rain changing to snow during the day today, which only happened over the northeast corner of the state. As the models continued to back off on even that idea, our forecast was amended over the weekend as well.
There are are no other local media outlets or government agencies that go to this depth to share the details of the forecast process; we will continue to do it since our traffic remains at all time highs; there is obviously a demand for the information. For the newcomers, anytime snow is even mentioned in “voodoo land”, or even a few days in advance as just an idea, not a formal forecast, the same group of people come over to the blog and give us a hard time. Like I have said here many times, constructive criticism is a great thing, and we can learn from it. And, it is appreciated.
But, we don’t pay too much attention to the haters (known for personal attacks), trolls (looking to pick fights), or know-it-alls (they are the greatest forecaster with an enlightened ability to interpret models, soundings, and other raw data). One thing about the know-it-alls, you know they are young; those of us that have been around for a while understand how much we don’t know. This will bring you to your knees at times. We don’t mind them dropping by at all… but it is funny if they hate the product we wonder why they hang out here.
I still have no idea why the mention of “snow” brings out so much emotion… including anger and rage. Guess we will need to bring on a staff psychiatrist one day. But, we continue the policy of open comments, with the exception of profanity, false information, or personal attacks. I had to delete over 50 blog comments just this weekend for these reasons. As J.B. says, life goes on…
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I had a great time today visiting with the kids at the Church at Brook Hills Early Learning Center (ELC)… be looking for them on the Pepsi KIDCAM today at 5:00 on ABC 33/40 News! Look for the next Weather Xtreme video here by 7:00 a.m. tomorrow…
