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STORMY DAYS: Be sure and watch the Weather Xtreme video for all of the graphics and other details associated with this discussion… Strong to severe storms are firing up right on schedule to the west; the first tornado warning of the day was just issued for a storm just west of Oklahoma City. Watch live streaming coverage now on KWTV in Oklahoma City.
SPC maintains a moderate risk of severe storms for the rest of this afternoon and tonight for the general area from Dallas to Little Rock, with a slight risk northward to St. Louis.
THE ALABAMA STORY: Around here, some patchy light rain or a few showers will remain possible tonight, but the severe weather threat will come during the day tomorrow. Looks like the window for severe weather will run from about 10:00 a.m. until 5:00 p.m…. severe storms should move into West Alabama during the mid to late morning hours, with the activity sweeping eastward during the afternoon.
Not much chance in our overall thinking; the main threat will come from damaging straight line winds, but a few isolated tornadoes will be possible in the strongly sheared environment. We note that SPC has dropped South Alabama from the severe weather risk tomorrow; the slight risk area is from Central Alabama northward to Cleveland and Pittsburgh. And, the severe weather probabilities are lower, in the 30 percent range, as opposed to 45 percent on the early outlook.
The WRF continues to be a little more aggressive with the instability tomorrow, but still nothing like an April event. Surface based CAPE values in the 500 to 750 j/kg range are likely. Helicity (0 to 3 km) remains very high, especially over the northern third of the state, and into Tennessee and Kentucky.
Bottom line is that a fast moving squall line will move through Alabama tomorrow with potential for damaging straight line winds and a few isolated tornadoes. Everybody will need to be able to hear severe weather watches and warnings tomorrow as they are issued. Watches could be required for West Alabama as early as mid-morning.
THURSDAY/FRIDAY: The sky will clear quickly tomorrow night, and Thursday should be a very nice day, with ample sunshine and a high in the mid to upper 60s. Clouds return on Friday, along with periods of rain. That rain should end at some point after midnight Friday night.
THE WEEKEND: Still looks like a dry weekend; the sky becomes partly sunny Saturday with a high in the low 60s. Some evidence now of cooler air slipping into North Alabama Sunday with highs back in the 50s; the day still looks dry, however.
NEXT WEEK: Another wave bring wet weather by Tuesday of next week; this time the GFS shows the surface low down in the Gulf of Mexico, which would mean no severe weather, just periods of rain.
STORM ALERT 2009: I will be doing a one-man version of Storm Alert 2009 tonight at Sylvan Springs United Methodist Church, on Alabama Highway 269. This is a place hit hard by the EF5 tornado on April 8, 1998. Tonight’s show will begin at 7:00; I promise to have you on your way by 8:00. Then, our regular show this week will be Thursday night at 7:00 in downtown Jasper at the CHS building. You can meet our entire weather team, get some cool prizes to take home, and learn more about Alabama weather. The point of this annual weather tour is getting Alabamians ready for the spring tornado season season, which is just around the corner.
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I had a great time today seeing the 4th graders at South Lamar School in Millport; be looking for them on the KIDCAM today at 5:00 on ABC 33/40 News! I hope to see many of you tonight at Sylvan Springs… the next Weather Xtreme video will be posted by 7:00 a.m. tomorrow. And, we will keep you updated on developments to the west.
