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COLD NIGHT AHEAD: Most places will be close to 30 degrees early tomorrow, but the colder valleys will be well down in the 20s with a clear sky and light wind.
We warm up into the low 60s tomorrow with a gradual increase in clouds. A few showers could break out tomorrow night, but the next good precipitation event will be on Wednesday.
SEVERE WEATHER? Still seems like the best low level helicity and instability will be a little out of phase Wednesday, but those mesoscale features really won’t be nailed down until Wednesday morning. Wind fields will be very strong, both at the surface and aloft, and we will still mention a chance of strong to severe storms Wednesday afternoon into the evening hours. Watch the Weather Xtreme video for more details.
The 12Z NAM brings up the surface based CAPE to 740 j/kg, with 0 to 3 km helicity at the time of 275 m2/s2. The higher helicity values come before the really unstable air arrives. Still, there is enough evidence to mention strong to severe storms Wednesday, and SPC has all of Alabama in a slight risk area.
The 12Z NAM is printing 0.66″ for Birmingham with this event; some runs have been more aggressive with rain, hinting at up to one inch.
COLDER AIR BLOWS IN HERE THURSDAY: Thursday looks like a windy and cold day with temperatures holding in the 40 to 45 degree range much of the day. Then, early Friday, temperatures should be well down in the 20s, with teens possible for the colder spots across North Alabama.
WEEKEND PEEK: An Alberta clipper will bring some clouds on Saturday, but limited moisture should mean nothing more than few sprinkles or flurries. The best chance of light snow with this feature will be north of Alabama, over East Tennessee, East Kentucky, and West Virginia. Gatlinburg might see an inch or two with this clipper. A fresh shot of colder air arrives on Sunday.
LONG RANGE: Looks like a decent rain event is shaping up by the middle of next week, and the weather continues to look very changeable through the rest of February into early March.
STORM ALERT 2009: Our annual severe weather awareness tour comes to Oxford this week… we will be at the Oxford Civic Center Thursday at 7:00 p.m. We hope to see you there… we always have big crowds over in Calhoun County, and we look forward to the visit.
WEATHER BRAINS: Don’t forget you can listen to our weekly 30 minute netcast anytime on the web, or on iTunes. This is the show all about weather featuring many familiar voices, including our meteorologists here at ABC 33/40. You can even listen here on the blog; look for the player on the top left. Our new show tonight should be posted by 10:30 p.m…
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I enjoyed my visit to the campus of the University of Montevallo this morning… I spoke to a large group of students in the College of Education; they will soon be elementary school teachers, and have a wonderful career ahead of them. Look for the next Weather Xtreme video here by 7:00 a.m. tomorrow…
