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A FEW SPRINKLES: Some of you might catch a few sprinkles today, but organized rain is not expected until the end of the week. Once again, we note a few echoes on radar this morning thanks to general upglide, but surface dewpoints remain mostly in the 20s and most of that rain you see on radar is not reaching the ground. The warm-up will continue; the high will be close to 60 today, followed by a high of 70 tomorrow.
FRIDAY AND THE WEEKEND: The surface front will bring a round of showers and storms to Alabama late Friday and Friday night. I note that SPC has North Alabama in a slight risk of severe weather on Day 3 (Friday)… but severe weather parameters remain rather unimpressive. Models show very little surface based instability, and the dynamics are not overly impressive.
The front will stall out somewhere around here, and a surface wave forms on the front in response to a strong short wave to the west. Where the front stalls will determine temperatures on Saturday; at this point it looks like the front will be positioned a little north of Birmingham, and if that is correct we should reach the 60s Saturday with periods of rain. Should the front stall closer to Montgomery, it will be about 10 to 15 degrees cooler, but the rain will fall one way or another.
We should see some pretty decent rain amounts; it looks like totals of 1 to 2 inches are likely with this two day rain event, which will knock out the 2009 rain deficiency.
The deepening surface low will begin to roll up the Atlantic coast Sunday, and colder and drier air will invade Alabama with a brisk north wind. Looks like any backwash snow showers will remain northeast of Alabama; we will forecast a clearing sky Sunday.
NEXT WEEK AND BEYOND: The weather will remain changeable through the first half of March; we have good hints of occasional cold snaps on the GFS; watch the Weather Xtreme video for the details. Don’t put away the winter clothes.
STORM ALERT 2009: We roll into Cullman tomorrow night; we will be at the Cullman Civic Center at 7:00. Come meet the weather team, get a free mouse pad to take home, and have a chance to win some other cool stuff. We hope to see you there.
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This morning I will be doing a weather program at Tuscaloosa Acacemy; look for the next Weather Xtreme video here by 3:30 this afternoon. Enjoy the day!