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The cold front and associated severe weather have finally begun sliding further south and east this morning. Looks like the biggest severe weather threat for today will come across Southeast Alabama, southern half of Georgia, and northern Florida. Many places across Central Alabama ended this event with between 3 and 6 inches of rain. And the heavy rain was relatively widespread, too, stretching from the Tennessee River to Montgomery and from border to border. At my house, my storm total of just over 3.3 inches surpassed the total for the whole rest of the month of February. Welcome rain and apparently flooding problems have been somewhat limited, thank goodness.
The cold core upper low was situated over Kansas/Nebraska this morning. It is forecast to dig southeast to South Georgia by mid-day on Sunday. It is still difficult to figure the exact track for a snow band, but I do think there will be a fairly wide swath of snow across the northern two-thirds of Alabama. I’m figuring roughly from Muscle Shoals to near Auburn or perhaps just a tad southwest of that line will see the heaviest amounts of 1 to 2 inches. I’m not certain that we’ll see any really serious travel issues since the ground is relatively warm. It may well be one of those bridges/overpasses situation with the roads primarily wet and snow accumulating on grassy surfaces. Looks like much of the snow will be ending across Central Alabama by early afternoon – sooner to the northwest of Birmingham.
Then we settle into a gradual warming trend with temperatures expected to be back above seasonal averages by mid-week – and breaking into the 70s by the end of the week. Our next shot at rain comes on Friday, but that could be a very minimal thing if the GFS is correct in holding a fairly tough ridge that keeps the next short wave well north of Alabama.
In the very long term the GFS develops a southwesterly flow across Alabama and the Southeast which could prove to be a very wet pattern for us. But that is still a long way out so we’ll watch and see.
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I plan to have the next discussion posted by 8 am Sunday morning. I hope you have a great Saturday. I know the word ‘nap’ is in my future today! Godspeed.
-Brian-
