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WARM AFTERNOON: So far, Montgomery is the warmest spot around the state; at 3:00 they are reporting 82 degrees. Birmingham is not far behind at 79; still a decent chance we visit the low 80s before the afternoon is over.
CHANGES AHEAD: A cold front will slip into North Alabama tomorrow, bringing a risk of showers by afternoon. Looks more and more like only spotty rain, and for areas south of I-20, tomorrow will be mostly dry as the front runs out of gas somewhere around I-20. The high will be close to 70 degrees tomorrow.
Cooler air will slip into North Alabama Thursday and Friday as the front drifts down toward U.S. 80. The 12Z GFS hints that much of the day Thursday will be dry; any rain should be light and scattered. Rain should begin to increase on Friday as the front tries to lift slowly northward as a warm front. Looks like highs will be in the 54 to 59 degree range both days.
OUR WEEKEND: Wet is the word. A wave of low pressure rides along the old front, bring rain and a few thunderstorms to the state Saturday, Saturday night, and into Sunday. Looks like a good set-up for at least one inch of rain, with local amounts to two inches. Severe weather is not expected with relatively stable air in place.
NEXT WEEK: Model madness is entering the picture; the 12Z GFS is now showing the trough position still to the west of Alabama early next week, which would mean a continued risk of light rain into Monday, with no serious intrusion of cool air. Let’s hold off until making major forecast changes until we see the 00Z GFS later this evening.
AT THE BEACH: Lots of questions about Gulf Coast weather as we approach spring break week for a number of Alabama school systems. There is a risk of scattered showers and thunderstorms Saturday and Sunday, with afternoon highs mostly in the 70s. No wash-out, but keep in mind a few showers are likely this weekend. For next week, we will need to hang onto a chance of showers on Monday, but the weather on the coast looks mostly dry for the rest of the week (Tuesday through Sunday), with highs mostly in the 70s. The sea water temperatures along the coast are running in the 61 to 65 degree range (they are normally in the 80s during the summer).
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I had a great time today visiting with the first graders at Chelsea Park Elementary School…. be looking for those kids on the Pepsi KIDCAM today at 5:00 on ABC 33/40 News! The next Weather Xtreme video will be posted by 7:00 a.m. tomorrow…