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GRADUAL CHANGES AHEAD: The cold front to the north is running out of gas, and is slowly approaching. But, this morning, looks like we will begin the day with bright sunshine as dry air is still in place. Clouds will slowly increase today, and a few showers could show up this afternoon or tonight in advance of the front, but rain amounts will be very light and spotty. Some places won’t have enough rain to measure, as the upper support is long gone and the front just drifts south due to the weight of the cold air behind it. Looks like we reach the low 70s today with the morning sunshine, so the cooling trend won’t be too evident today.
TOMORROW AND FRIDAY: Cooler air seeps in here tomorrow, and the high should drop into the upper 50s as the shallow layer of cold air settles into the northern counties of Alabama. A little scattered light rain is possible tomorrow, but most places will be dry. Rain will be much more likely on Friday as the front tries to slowly back up and move northward as a warm front, and isentropic lift increases. Both the GFS and the NAM are printing a high of 57 for Birmingham on Friday, so the weather stays cool.
THE WEEKEND: Saturday looks pretty wet as well… a wave of low pressure moves through Alabama, and we figure most communities have a great chance of seeing beneficial and widespread rain Saturday. The latest GFS suggests the rain will taper off early Sunday morning, with some hint of sunshine Sunday afternoon. We figure most places will receive one to two inches of rain Friday and Saturday. A few thunderstorms are possible Saturday, but severe weather does not look likely due to stable air.
SPRING BREAK: Seems like school systems all have different spring break weeks, but I know many of you will be on break next week. Confidence is fairly high in a rain event early in the week (the latest GFS shows that on Monday)… followed by dry and pleasant weather for the rest of the week, Tuesday through Friday. The idea of much cooler air moving into the Deep South early in the week is pretty much off the table now; it looks like temperatures next week will be close to seasonal averages for mid-March across the Deep South.
Pretty much the same idea for the Gulf Coast… a chance of showers Monday, followed by dry weather for the remainder of the week. Highs down there will be in the 65 to 70 degree range on the immediate coast, and the sea water temperatures are hovering in the low to mid 60s, keeping the air a little cooler.
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This morning I will be doing a weather presentation for the young children at First Baptist Church of Columbiana… look for the next Weather Xtreme video by 3:30. Enjoy the day!
