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It’s a rainy morning across much of Alabama this morning. And it looks like our forecasts of a wet weekend are going to be pretty much on target. And it looks like the cold air damming, or the wedge, will have a pretty strong influence on temperatures. Rain is likely to taper off late this afternoon but continue off and on until Sunday afternoon. We will probably see another break Sunday afternoon with even a peek at a bit of sun before we get one final rain shot early Monday morning. Temperatures today will vary from the upper 40s at Anniston to the mid 50s in Birmingham to the upper 50s at Tuscaloosa.
Rainfall amounts so far are generally around a quarter of an inch with 1 to 2 inches across northwest Alabama which got more rain yesterday. This should end up being a good soaking for much of the area with amounts in the 1 to 2 inch range over a wide area.
The impact of the wedge should lessen Sunday with temperatures a bit milder with highs in the lower and mid 60s. And it looks like much of the upcoming week will be relatively mild.
An upper level short wave should kick the stalled front and the precipitation out of here on Monday drying us out until at least Thursday. Thursday another front will approach from the northwest, but chances are we;ll only see some clouds. Right now the forecast includes a slight chance for some showers, but I would not be surprised to see those chances lowered as we get closer to Thursday.
As we head into the end of the week and the weekend, a trough develops over the East Coast with a weak ridge over the western US. This will put Alabama and the Southeast under a weak northwesterly flow which will probably bring temperatures back to about average for the middle part of March.
For those on the Gulf Coast for spring break, it will be wet through Monday but conditions should be pretty nice by mid and late this coming week with good sun. Temperatures should rebound into the lower 70s, but that Gulf water temperature is still in the mid 60s which is a bit chilly for my taste.
Late in voodoo country there is a suggestion that another sharp trough amy set up over the eastern US bringing some of that really cold air in Canada well south. It is quite cold again in northern Canada, so the idea of a quick cold surge south is not really strange. The NAO forecasts suggest cooler but nothing extreme yet. This will be something to keep an eye on, but it is likely to be a relatively quick shot to colder air with recovery in a day or two.
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I hope you have a great Saturday. Stay dry. I had a great time at the Alabama Symphony Orchestra last night with a great program including a solo percussionist named Colin Currie. We have such a gem in our orchestra. The next Weather Xtreme Video should be post by 8 am Sunday morning. Godspeed.
-Brian-
