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TONIGHT/TOMORROW: Our weather will remain quiet tonight and tomorrow; any showers will be isolated, with a mix of sun and clouds tomorrow. Expect a high tomorrow in the mid to upper 70s; some West Alabama communities could flirt with 80 if the sun breaks out for a long period of time.
While we have quiet weather, severe storms will remain possible tonight and tomorrow to the west; tornado watches are already up from Oklahoma to South Dakota. We also note blizzard warnings in effect for the Black Hills… where over one foot of snow is likely with visibility near zero at times.
WEDNESDAY: The initial batch of rain and storms will move into Alabama Wednesday. Severe weather is not likely with weakening upper air support. In fact, the front will stall somewhere over Central Alabama, setting up a long duration rain event that could bring up to 6 inches of rain to this part of the state between Wednesday and Saturday. Needless to say, there could be some flash flood concerns before it all winds down. Again, we don’t expect severe weather Wednesday and Thursday although rain and storms are likely both days.
FRIDAY/SATURDAY: Somewhere in here a window will most likely open for the potential for severe storms. Our old front should lift northward as a warm front Friday afternoon, perhaps allowing for some sunshine and creating a rather unstable atmosphere. Then, a major upper trough will bring the next round of rain and storms late Friday night or Saturday, and those could be severe based on projected upper air profiles and instability values. The 12Z GFS (watch the Weather Xtreme video) is a little slower, and really holds the severe weather off until the daytime hours on Saturday. Too early to call the mesoscale features of this event; just be aware that we could be dealing with severe thunderstorms at some point Friday night and Saturday. And, with saturated soil, some flash flooding issues are certainly possible as well.
SUNDAY/MONDAY: A dry slot will move into Alabama Saturday night, and the latest GFS put us in mild and dry weather conditions on these days; it has backed off on the idea of a cold snap with potential for a freeze Monday morning. But, I caution you it is early in the game and that concept might come back on the table at some point. stay tuned.
VOODOO LAND: The 12Z GFS shows good storm events for Alabama on April 1, and again on April 6. Watch the Weather Xtreme video for details; needless to say we can’t call specific events this far in advance, but it looks like the first couple of weeks of April will be very active, as we expect this time of the year.
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I enjoyed speaking to high school students at Briarwood Christian School this morning, and seeing the 1st, 2nd, and 3rd graders at Bruno Montessori Academy this afternoon… look for those younger guys on the KIDCAM today at 5:00 on ABC 33/40 News. The next Weather Xtreme video will be posted by 7:00 a.m. tomorrow…
