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VERY ACTIVE WEATHER AHEAD: Must be spring-time in Alabama. Our weather remains benign today, but things really get active during the latter half of the week. I encourage you to take the time to watch the Weather Xtreme video since it has all of the graphics involved with this discussion. Let’s break it down…
FLOODING: The guys at HPC continue to suggest much of Alabama will receive 5 inches of rain tomorrow through Saturday, and I believe they are correct. The soil will become saturated by Thursday, so rain and storms Friday and Friday night will have the potential to create flash flooding. And, river flooding will also be a concern since most major Alabama rivers are still running high from recent rain events. If you live in a flood prone area, just be aware the risk is there later in the week.
SEVERE WEATHER: The initial batch of storms will arrive tomorrow, and I still think the chance of a big severe weather problem during the day tomorrow is relatively small with weakening dynamics. But, SPC has now put much of the state in a slight risk area on Thursday due to increasing lapse rates, and the presence of a stalled surface front which will allow for backed surface winds near the boundary. While I don’t expect a widespread event, it now does appear a few rotating storms will be possible tomorrow night into Thursday. We will keep an eagle eye on the radar.
The main severe weather threat is shaping up Friday afternoon, Friday night, and into early Saturday morning. Our old surface boundary should lift northward as a warm front, and the sun should break out by midday Friday, pushing temperatures into the low 80s. This, in turn, will drive CAPE values over 2,000 j/kg, setting the stage for a potentially explosive severe weather event across the Deep South. Of course, we can’t resolve mesoscale features this far in advance, but just be aware that the potential is there for all modes of severe weather, including the possibility of a few strong tornadoes. We will be able to fine tune the timing and other specifics later in the week.
I think everyone should take the time to review severe weather plans just in case this does come together, and be sure you have a NOAA Weather Radio receiver that is programmed properly.
LONG RANGE: Drier air returns to Alabama Saturday night, and Sunday and Monday look dry with seasonal temperatures; no freeze threat is showing up at this time. Later, the GFS shows more dynamic weather systems around April 1, April 4, and April 8. No dull moments around here, you know, this time of the year. Again, watch the Weather Xtreme video for details.
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I am headed to my old school, Verner Elementary, this morning for a weather program in Tuscaloosa… I always enjoy coming back. I will have the next Weather Xtreme video posted by 3:30 this afternoon… enjoy the day!
