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FLOOD THREAT: The new QPF chart from the guys at HPC suggests 9 inches of rain around the Gulf Shores/Pensacola area for the next 4 days, with amounts around 5 inches here in North-Central Alabama. Flash flood watches should be issued shortly for much of the state; with each day the soil will become more saturated, and with our final round of storms by Friday night into Saturday morning some significant flash flooding will be possible. Also, river flooding is a great concern since levels are already high. Everyone with interests along the major rivers in Alabama will need to pay close attention to weather developments in coming days. Alabama Power has notified us that folks that live around their lakes need to know that flood gates will most likely need to be opened later this week.
SEVERE WEATHER: There will be multiple severe weather opportunities in coming days. I still believe the risk of severe weather tonight is very marginal, but SPC does have the western counties of the state in a slight risk. There is very little surface based instability available, but a wave moving along the front should bring backed winds near the surface, which could bring a few rotating updrafts. Remember, when it comes to thunderstorms, expect the unexpected.
I get the idea the rain will taper off tomorrow morning, and the sun could pop out for a while tomorrow afternoon as we get a break from the rain temporarily. Then, another round of storms is likely tomorrow night into early Friday morning as our front lifts northward as a warm front. Some of these storms could be severe, and we will watch the closely.
VERY SIGNIFICANT RISK FRIDAY NIGHT: No doubt the most dangerous weather will come from about 4:00 p.m. Friday until 8:00 a.m. Saturday as a vigorous upper trough supports a rapidly deepening surface low, which will move from near Dallas to Indianapolis. A few discrete supercell thunderstorms could form Friday afternoon into Friday night, with all modes of severe weather possible. Forecast EHI values (energy helicity index) and other parameters suggest a few long track tornadoes will be possible, and I would not be shocked if SPC raises a moderate or high severe weather risk for a large part of Mississippi and Alabama. The storms should roll over into a squall line during the pre-dawn hours Saturday, with potential for damaging straight line winds as it moves through the state. All of the rain should be over by early afternoon Saturday.
NOW IS THE TIME to review your family severe weather safety plan, and be sure your NOAA Weather Radio is programmed properly for your county.
Drier air returns Saturday night, and Sunday will be dry with ample sunshine and a high around 60 degrees.
NEXT WEEK: The GFS is more bullish now on the idea of the next short wave bringing another cold front into Alabama late Monday night into Tuesday morning with yet another band of showers and storms. At this point it seems unlikely that there be sufficient instability for another round of severe weather.
LONG RANGE: The active pattern continues into April with a storm system in here about every 3 to 4 days; watch the Weather Xtreme video for the details.
SPECIAL ABC 33/40 NOAA WEATHER RADIO OFFER: You can purchase the WR-100 Midland NOAA Weather Radio, the best selling model in the nation, at any Publix or Handy TV location in this part of Alabama for only $29.95. These receivers have the new digital technology that allows you to choose the counties for which the alarm sounds. Every Alabama home and business needs one!
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I had a great time today seeing the kids at the ELC at Gardendale’s First Baptist Church, and the 3rd graders at Gwin Elementary in Hoover. Be looking for them on the Pepsi KIDCAM today at 5:00 and 6:00 on ABC 33/40 News. We will keep the blog updated with fresh information through this long duration event… the next Weather Xtreme video will be posted by 7:00 a.m. tomorrow.
