An all new edition of the ABC 33/40 Weather Xtreme video is available in the player below. You can subscribe to the Weather Xtreme video on iTunes by clicking here.
RIGHT NOW: The Gulf Coast MCS (mesoscale convective system) continues to roll on to the east; a tornado watch is in effect for Southeast Alabama and parts of the Florida panhandle until 10:00 a.m. Up this way, just a large mass of light to moderate rain covers North-Central Alabama.
A number of counties down south are under tornado warnings, there has been damage in Baldwin County, and injuries have been reported east of Robertsdale.
TODAY: Rain should taper off during the morning, and it looks like we will have a great in the action again this afternoon and early tonight. A few showers could form, but severe weather problems are not expected this afternoon as the air recharges and recovers from the morning MCS.
TONIGHT: Dynamic forcing to the west will bring an increase in thunderstorms over Texas, Arkansas, and Louisiana early tonight, and SPC has the general area from East Texas to Alabama under a slight risk of severe weather. They have dropped the moderate risk for the Mississippi Delta for now; it looks more and more like the most significant severe weather will come tomorrow. Still, severe storms could begin to fire late tonight, mostly after midnight. Pre-dawn severe weather warnings are a real possibility.
TOMORROW: SPC has most of Alabama in a high 45 percent probability of severe weather tomorrow; that is a very significant number for a day two convective outlook, and it likely that a moderate risk will be required. Thunderstorms will increase across the entire state dramatically early tomorrow morning, and all modes of severe weather will be possible through early afternoon, including isolated tornadoes. Hopefully the fact that this event will be peaking during the morning and midday hours will keep instability values in check, but we must remember there is amazing dynamic forcing going on here, and the threat of a significant severe weather remains high.
We will need to adjust the timing a bit; it now looks like our prime window for severe weather in Alabama is from 12:00 midnight tonight until 3:00 p.m. tomorrow. The storms should be entirely in Georgia by late afternoon. Again, we encourage everyone to take a few minutes to review their severe weather plan, and be sure your NOAA Weather Radio is programmed properly so you can hear all of the warnings.
FLOODING: Another two to three inches of rain is likely, so storm totals of over 5 inches will be common by tomorrow night, and flash flooding issues will most likely develop tomorrow as well. The GFS is printing an additional 2.71″ of rain for Birmingham, which sounds good here. If you live in a flood prone area… stay in touch with the latest weather developments. And, of course, all of this water has to go somewhere, and river flooding issues will most likely develop over the weekend as well, lasting into next week.
SUNDAY: Dry air returns tomorrow night, and the sky becomes partly to mostly sunny on Sunday with a high in the 55 to 60 degree range. We note the GFS is colder now for Monday morning; printing 37 for Birmingham. Looks like we might have to look a little harder at some risk of frost, and even a light freeze for the colder valleys. More on this later…
NEXT WEEK: We will bring in a chance of showers and storms on Tuesday, but it looks like the next severe weather event will come Thursday, Thursday night, or Friday. Way too early to be specific; it is hard enough trying to deal with the specifics of the ongoing event!
SPECIAL ABC 33/40 NOAA WEATHER RADIO OFFER: You can purchase the WR-100 Midland NOAA Weather Radio, the best selling model in the nation, at any Publix or Handy TV location in this part of Alabama for only $29.95. These receivers have the new digital technology that allows you to choose the counties for which the alarm sounds. Every Alabama home and business needs one!
TWITTER: Don’t forget, you can follow our news and weather updates from ABC 33/40 on Twitter here. And, my personal Twitter feed is here if you want to keep up with my adventures in life. Twitter is a short messaging service you can receive via the web, cell phone, or IM.
WEATHER BRAINS: Don’t forget you can listen to our weekly 30 minute netcast anytime on the web, or on iTunes. This is the show all about weather featuring many familiar voices, including our meteorologists here at ABC 33/40. You can even listen here on the blog; look for the player on the top left.
I was scheduled to be in Starkville today and tomorrow for the annual Southeast Severe Storms Symposium at Mississippi State, but the event was cancelled due to this severe weather event. So, we will all be here staffing this episode of severe thunderstorms in Alabama. Stay tuned to the blog for frequent updates, and I will crank out another Weather Xtreme video by 3:30 this afternoon. Enjoy the day…
