Interesting reading from our friends over at the NWS in Jackson, MS.
Obviously a developing weather situation that will bear watching for a large area of the South, including for us here in Alabama…
THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY EVENING…ELEMENTS ARE STILL COMING TOGETHER
FOR A SEVERE WX OUTBREAK AND THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION REMAINS VALID
CONCERNING THIS EVENT. THE ONLY ADJUSTMENT IN THE FORECAST GRIDS WAS
TO INCREASE POPS OVER ERN MS THURSDAY EVENING BASE ON LATEST TIMING
OF GUIDANCE. IT APPEARS AT THIS POINT THAT ERN MS HAS THE GREATEST
POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER. /EC/
DETAILS CONCERNING SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL FOR THURSDAY…
ALL MODEL GUID HAS BEEN CONSISTENT IN THE EVOLUTION OF THE POTENT
UPPER LOW AND DEEPENING SFC LOW OVER THE REGION FOR SEVERAL RUNS
NOW. THE ENVIRONMENT WILL BE VERY VOLATILE AS LAPSE RATES WILL BE
EXTREMELY STEEP FOR THESE PARTS WITH VERTICAL TOTALS RUNNING 30-34C
AND 700-500 MB RATES 8-9 C/KM. THE SFC LOW LOOKS TO DEEPEN ACROSS AR
AND LIFT NE INTO TN. AS THIS OCCURS…UPPER 60 TO LOWER 70 SFC
DEWPTS WILL SPREAD N ACROSS THE AREA. A VERY UNSTABLE WARM SECTOR
WILL DEVELOP BY AFTERNOON WITH TEMPS 75-80. STRONG ASCENT WILL
SPREAD OVER THE WARM SECTOR WITH A MID LEVEL JET STREAK OF 80-100KTS
SLAMMING THE AREA. DUE TO THE STEEP LAPSE RATES…THERE WILL BE A
CAP. NORMALLY I WOULD BE CONCERNED THAT SUCH A CAP WOULD HOLD.
HOWEVER…THE STRONG DYNAMICS WITH THE SYSTEM WILL OVERCOME THE CAP
AND VERY INTENSE STORMS WILL ERUPT. I CAN SEE SCT SUPERCELL TYPE
STORMS DEVELOPING WITH EACH ONE INTENSE. AT THIS TIME…VERY LARGE
HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG WITH DMG WINDS AND TORNADOES. BASED OFF
THE THERMO PROFILE AND LARGE LOOPING HODOGRAPHS…TORNADOES LOOK TO
BE POSSIBLE AS WELL WITH SOME POSSIBLY STRONG AND LONG-TRACK AS
STORMS RACE NE AT 50-60 MPH. HOWEVER…THERE ARE NEGATIVES TO THIS
DEVELOPING. ONE IS THE DEWPT DEPRESSION MAY BE LARGE IF TEMPS
APPROACH 80 AND SFC DEWPTS ARE IN THE 63-65 RANGE.
ADDITIONALLY…MID LEVEL HGHTS WILL BE QUITE LOW WITH THE CWA IN THE
560 TO 566 DM RANGE. FINALLY…WITH THE SFC LOW TRACKING FROM S AR
TO W TN…THE LOW CENTER MAY BE TOO CLOSE WHICH TYPICALLY LIMITS THE
TOR POTENTIAL. WE STILL HAVE TIME TO IRON OUT THE DETAILS…BUT AT A
MINIMUM…THE HAIL AND WIND DMG POTENTIAL LOOK TO BE SUBSTANTIAL FOR
THU. /CME/
