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MODERATE RISK: SPC maintains a moderate risk of severe weather for almost all of Alabama through tonight. A deepening surface low is forecast to move from Texarkana to Paducah during the next 18 hours; a very favorable position for severe weather here in our state. The low is supported by a vigorous short wave trough, with excellent diffluence aloft. All forecast parameters point to the potential for significant severe weather in the general time frame from noon to midnight, with the core risk from 3:00 p.m. until 9:00 p.m.
If temperatures can reach the mid to upper 70s as we expect, then surface based CAPE values will soar into the 1,500 to 2,000 j/kg category this afternoon. We note the NAM brings the lifted index down to -6.7 at Birmingham by late afternoon. Very high 0 to 1 km helicity values will mean some rotating updrafts, and potential for isolated tornadoes with the initial discrete supercell storms that form this afternoon and into the evening hours.
TO THE SOUTH: We will be watching convective developments along the Gulf Coast; most models, including the high resolution WRF, show a wide open Gulf this afternoon, with the big storm mass to the east of here. But, radar trends this morning show convection scattered from Louisiana to the Florida panhandle. We will simply have to watch what happens this morning; a big mass of storms down there will disrupt the wind field and reduce the chance of a major severe weather problem here. You know that situation… but even if we do have storms down south there will still be a risk of severe weather here.
The storms should move out of here soon after midnight, and the sky will clear tomorrow with a high in the 60s.
OUR WEEKEND: Saturday looks like a wonderful day, with a sunny sky and a high well into the 70s. But, another storm system will bring showers and strong thunderstorms in here on Sunday; SPC maintains a severe weather risk for all of Alabama on Sunday. We will be much more specific about this threat tomorrow, after today’s system is out of here.
LATE SEASON FREEZE: Models continue to show a deep upper trough forming over the eastern U.S. early next week, and suggest much of North and Central Alabama will have freezing temperatures at daybreak Tuesday. The GFS is printing 30 degrees for Birmingham, and no doubt the valleys and low spots will be down in the 20s. Growers will need to note this and plan accordingly; we will be more specific in coming days.
VOODOO LAND: Another threat of strong storms shows up on Thursday April 9… the 00Z GFS is not as deep with the upper short wave, but this is way out there and too early to get into the nitty gritty details. The active weather, most likely, will continue at least into mid-April.
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We will have running updates on the blog today… so stay tuned. You will also be able to watch our live streams in the upper left part of the blog, including our Storm Alert radar, and the stream from our Storm Chaser van, which will be over in West Alabama this morning….
