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WARMING TREND CONTINUES: Another nice day for Alabama today… lots of sun with a high well up in the 70s. High cirrus clouds will advance in here this afternoon, becoming thicker and lower late tonight as moisture levels increase.
STORMY FRIDAY: SPC has much of Alabama in a slight risk of severe weather tomorrow; an enhanced probability shows up over Northeast Alabama (see the Weather Xtreme video). Some severe weather parameters for tomorrow afternoon from the NAM extraction:
Surface based CAPE 1506 j/kg
Lifted index -6.3
0 to 3 km helicity 347 m2/s2
850 mb winds 43 knots
500 mb winds 61 knots
Seems like we will have some of the best instability this year by tomorrow afternoon with a decent amount of shear… but the strength of the upper trough and the associated surface low are not exactly overwhelming. And, there is also a lack of low level moisture that hopefully will keep things in check. We will keep a close eye to the sky; with thunderstorms expect the unexpected.
The main window for severe storms will be from 12:00 noon until 8:00 p.m.
EASTER WEEKEND: The sky becomes mostly sunny Saturday with a high close to 70 along with lower humidity levels; communities north of Birmingham could hold in the mid to upper 60s Saturday afternoon. Easter Sunday looks dry and pleasant with a high in the mid 70s.
MORE STORMS: Yet another threat of strong to severe storms is ahead by Monday. The GFS hints the best chance of severe weather with this vigorous upper trough will be from 3:00 a.m. until 3:00 p.m. Monday; the big question here will be instability. If the surface based instability values can rise to significant levels, then all modes of severe weather will be possible. Let’s get tomorrow’s system out of here and we can focus on Monday.
REST OF THE WEEK: If you have spring break next week, watch the Weather Xtreme video for a day by day breakdown on weather; the middle of the week looks great, but showers could return toward the end of the week.
VOODOO COUNTRY: Uh oh… the GFS shows a deep upper trough over the eastern U.S. around April 19; even if that is right a freeze is not likely, but it will be very chilly. And, keep in mind that feature will probably vanish on future runs. Take a look at the Weather Xtreme video to see the deal.
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I have a weather program this morning at Elvin Hill Elementary down in Columbiana… look for the next Weather Xtreme video here by 3:30 this afternoon. Enjoy the day!
