NOTE: Scroll down to see the latest SPC Map showing all the risks including the latest “HIGH Risk”
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0144 PM CDT FRI APR 10 2009
VALID 102000Z – 111200Z
…THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON INTO EVENING
OVER NERN AL…SERN TN AND NWRN GA…
…THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT OVER
PARTS OF MIDDLE AND ERN TN INTO NRN AND CNTRL PORTIONS OF AL/GA AND
EWD INTO THE WRN CAROLINAS…
…THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM PARTS OF THE OH AND LOWER
MS VALLEYS EWD TO THE CAROLINAS COASTS…
…TN VALLEY INTO NRN PARTS OF AL/GA…
AN OUTBREAK OF SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF VERY LARGE HAIL AND POTENTIALLY
STRONG…LONG-TRACKED TORNADOES IS UNDERWAY TODAY ACROSS PARTS OF
KY/MIDDLE TN INTO NWRN AL. LATEST MESOANALYSIS INDICATES PRIMARY
SURFACE LOW W OF HOP WHICH WILL CONTINUE ENEWD TOWARD THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST BY SATURDAY MORNING. MEANWHILE…RESIDUAL OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY/EFFECTIVE WARM FRONT IS RAPIDLY LIFTING NWD WITH THIS
FEATURE EXTENDING FROM INTERSECTION WITH ONGOING CONVECTION OVER SRN
MIDDLE TN E-SEWD THROUGH NRN GA INTO NRN SC.
WHILE SURFACE WINDS HAVE VEERED TO MORE SWLY IMMEDIATELY AHEAD OF
ONGOING SUPERCELLS FROM NERN MS INTO NWRN AL…A CORRIDOR OF
PRESSURE FALLS ALONG RETREATING WARM FRONT OVER SRN MIDDLE TN INTO
NERN AL IS MAINTAINING MORE SLY BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW FARTHER TO THE
E. RESULTANT HODOGRAPH FROM HUNTSVILLE AL INDICATES A STRONGLY
SHEARED KINEMATIC ENVIRONMENT WITH 30-35 KT OF 0-1 KM SHEAR AND
60-70 KT OF BULK SHEAR IN THE LOWEST 6 KM. THIS IN CONJUNCTION WITH
THE VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES…SUFFICIENT BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE AND
FAVORABLY LOW LCL/LFC HEIGHTS INDICATE A POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANTLY
TORNADIC SUPERCELLS ACROSS SRN MIDDLE AND SERN TN INTO NRN PARTS OF
AL INTO NWRN GA THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON INTO EVENING. IN ADDITION TO
THE TORNADO THREAT…VERY LARGE HAIL WILL ALSO ACCOMPANY THESE
STORMS.
FOR ADDITIONAL SHORT TERM GUIDANCE ON THIS AREA…SEE MCD 430.
REMAINING TEMPORAL AND SPATIAL ASPECTS OF DAY ONE PERIOD REMAIN WELL
HANDLED IN THE 1630Z OUTLOOK.
..MEAD/EVANS/SMITH.. 04/10/2009
