*A new tornado watch is up for the northern third of Alabama through 8:00 p.m. Scroll down for the actual watch box.
*A glance at current weather data shows that there is a narrow ribbon of instability ahead of the dry slot to the west, and storms are forming along that boundary, mostly over Tennessee. The storms should slowly develop southward through the rest of the afternoon.
*Instability at this point is not really that excessive; surface based CAPE values remain under 1,000 j/kg, but with sunshine breaking through the overcast those values will rise for the rest of the afternoon. The serious instability is down around Baton Rouge (4,000 j/kg CAPE).
*The best low level helicity is clearly northeast of Alabama, which should prevent a serious tornado problem. SPC believes there is enough of a threat for a tornado watch, but it seems to us that hail and strong straight line winds will be main issue. But, you know what I am about to say, with thunderstorms expect the unexpected.
*The sky becomes partly sunny tomorrow, and the rest of the week will be dry with highs in the 70s Wednesday through Friday.
*The 12Z GFS has come in keeping the bulk of the showers and storms west of Alabama this weekend. Model madness is the story, making for a low confidence forecast. I still think we need to mention at least a chance of showers, especially Saturday night and Sunday, and especially over West Alabama.
*The GFS is continuing to show the primary storm track lifting northward toward the end of April, which will mean warmer temperatures and fewer storms for Alabama at that time if the model is correct.
No Weather Xtreme video this afternoon due to the severe weather potential… we will get back to the regular two a day schedule tomorrow. Stay tuned for updates…
