Showers were spreading northeastward across Central Mississippi this evening ahead of an upper level disturbance that is lifting into western Tennessee.
The rainfall was light to moderate, since the main inflow of Gulf moisture is being cutoff by a huge complex of thunderstorms over Louisiana. Several flash flood warnings are in effect over Southwest Louisiana and Southeast Texas. A tornado warning is in effect for St. Landry and Point Coupee Parishes in South Central Louisiana.
The rain will spread into West Alabama after 11 p.m. and spread across the state overnight. Rainfall amounts will be around 1/4 inch and severe weather is not expected. The exception may be over Southwest Alabama in the Mobile up to Grove Hill areas, where storms could be severe during the early morning hours.
By morning, the main upper system and surface low will still be well to the west of Alabama. We will have to see how much the atmosphere can reload after the early morning activity. A strong cold front will approach Alabama during the late afternoon, providing the spark for thunderstorms. Instability will be the question mark, but with colder air aloft spreading, it should be sufficient for decent updrafts. Winds will increase with height, providing good speed shear. Damaging winds and hail will be possible.
A line of storms will sweep through the state during the late afternoon and evening ahead of the cold front.
