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Patchy areas of light rain were moving through Central Alabama this morning while a large cluster of storms along the Louisiana coast seems to have interrupted the overall pattern. But storms are still likely to occur this afternoon and early this evening even though instability may be somewhat limited. The Storm Prediction Center is still outlooking all of Alabama for a slight risk of severe weather today. Damaging wind is the greatest threat but an isolated tornado is still possible.
The surface low in Central Arkansas this morning will move into southern Illinois/Indiana this afternoon dragging a cold front across the state. Lapse rates are not as steep as expected so instability is somewhat limited as GFS CAPE values are expected to remain below 1000 even though the WRF is more aggressive. I expect to see a line of storms develop late this morning or early this afternoon as breaks in the clouds help to fuel low level heating.
Rainfall amounts are likely to be in the one half to one inch category, but there will be a good deal of variability which is just the nature of convective storms.
As the upper trough moves across the area, the thunderstorms will end from the west with most of Central Alabama clear of storms by 9 pm to midnight. Disturbances on the west side of the upper trough will help to deepen it Monday and Tuesday bringing some colder weather to the area Tuesday. I think the coldest morning will be Wednesday morning before a nice warming trend kicks into high gear as the upper trough moves into the Atlantic Ocean.
The upper flow goes zonal with a surface high pressure area across the Southeast states from Wednesday through the weekend. So it looks like we should be high and dry and warm after we get through with the storms today. And there is not much to speculate on into voodoo land with the main westerly storm track shifted to the north. That should keep most fronts to our north but open the possibility for some afternoon showers with warm weather.
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Thanks for tuning into the Weather Xtreme Video. James Spann should be back first thing Monday morning with the next edition. The regular gang will be posting here today, so check back often for updates on the weather situation for Central Alabama. I hope you have a great Sunday. I’m headed out to handle ushering duties today at church. Godspeed.
-Brian-
