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STILL SUMMER-LIKE: A new day, but an old forecast. The key rain producing systems will still pass north and west of Alabama through the weekend, leaving Alabama in a warm, humid airmass with some risk of an afternoon shower or storm on a daily basis. Another words, this weather is more like the end of June instead of the end of April. Afternoon highs will remain in the 80 to 84 degree range, about 5 degrees above average values for this time of the year.
The hard part of the forecast is determining the coverage of the showers and storms. The NAM and the GFS seem to suggest a dying MCS (mesoscale convective system) could reach Alabama tonight, with potential for showers lasting after midnight. Those models could be correct on this one. So, we might have to hit the chance of rain tonight a little harder in the forecast.
TOMORROW AND THE WEEKEND: Nothing to really hang your hat on here; we will just mention some risk of scattered showers and storms on a daily basis, along with a mix of sun and clouds and a high in the low to mid 80s. Humidity levels will remain high, and the rain won’t be too widespread; just be aware that a shower or storm could blow up during the afternoon or evening hours.
NEXT WEEK: The 00Z GFS shows a cold front easing in here early next week with an increase in the number of showers and storms Monday night into Tuesday. That front stalls and fizzles out by mid-week, leaving the state in this warm and muggy airmass. No real sign of any cool, dry continental air reaching us through mid-month as the polar westerlies retreat up into Canada. And, accordingly, no serious severe weather or heavy rain threat shows up as well.
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I will be doing a weather program this morning at Calera Elementary School… then back into the office and the next Weather Xtreme video should be posted by 3:30 this afternoon. Enjoy the day!
