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TODAY: The radar is pretty quiet this morning; looks like today will be warmer with a high in the low to mid 80s; that warmth will drive instability values up this afternoon, and the bulk of today’s showers and storms should come in the 2:00 p.m. to 9:00 p.m. time frame. The storms will be scattered, but some spots could see a heavy downpour with thunder and lightning.
TOMORROW AND THE WEEKEND: Moisture levels will increase, and we will have to mention a chance of showers and storms on a daily basis through Sunday. Looks like most of the showers tomorrow will come during the afternoon and evening, but over the weekend showers are possible at any time, and we could see some heavy rain at times, especially by Sunday as a surface front approaches from the northwest. Severe weather doesn’t look especially likely for now, but we could wind up with some flooding issues before the weekend is over. You will need to take the rain gear to the Regions Charity Golf Classic at Ross Bridge. The GFS is printing a high of 80 Saturday, but only 69 on Sunday with clouds and rain.
NEXT WEEK: We still expect drier air to work into Alabama early next week with lower humidity and cooler nights. We should be down in the low 50s at daybreak Monday as continental air works into the state. The sky should clear Monday, with sunshine back in full force by Tuesday. The 00Z GFS brings in a fetch of moisture from the Atlantic on Wednesday with a chance of showers and storms returning; let’s hold off and look at a few more runs before we buy into this. Moist air should return one way or another by Thursday and Friday.
Some of the other global models (GEM, NOGAPS) have tried to develop a surface low in the Gulf of Mexico along the old surface front early next week; we will keep an eye on that. Can you have a tropical storm in May? Yes, but it doesn’t happen too often. We do note SSTs are over 80 across much of the Gulf, so it is not out of the question. Most early season systems do develop in the “back yard” like this.
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This morning I will be speaking to the senior adults at Concord Baptist Church in Calera… I will be back in the office by early afternoon, and the next Weather Xtreme video will be posted by 3:30. Enjoy the day!
