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WET AT TIMES: Look for a general increase in the number of showers and storms across our state during the next 48 hours as upper heights come down, and a surface front approaches from the northwest. The rain won’t be continuous, but it could rain at any time through Sunday, and a few heavy downpours could be involved. Today, our best chance of showers and storms will come after 2:00, when the air becomes unstable. The high today should be up in the mid 80s with some decent intervals of midday sunshine.
WEEKEND FORECAST: Tomorrow looks pretty wet with periods of rain and a few thunderstorms. Then, Sunday, the GFS is a little faster with the front, and it now looks like rain will end from northwest to southeast during the day with cooler air moving in from the north. Areas north of Birmingham most likely won’t get out of the 60s with some nice cool air advection going on. The good news is that severe weather does not look likely across our state, although there could be a strong storm or two. Rain amounts of 1 to 2 inches are likely between now and Sunday afternoon.
COOLER AIR: The GFS is printing 48 degrees for Birmingham at daybreak Monday. We won’t have too many of these kind of cool, crisp mornings before the long, hot summer gets here, so enjoy it. Our weather still looks dry Monday through Wednesday with low humidity and cool nights.
EARLY SEASON TROPICAL STORM? The global models continue the idea of some kind of tropical low forming in the Gulf of Mexico by the middle of next week. Watch the Weather Xtreme video, and you will see the GFS moves it up toward the central Gulf Coast by the end of the week, but runs of the ECMWF have taken it out into the open Atlantic. We do note SSTs in the Gulf are above 80 degrees (F) now, so the idea is not out of the question, but confidence in any specific solution this far out is very low. And, we don’t have major tropical systems in May, but tropical storms with the prime threat coming from heavy rain once they get inland. We will keep an eye on developments.
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Today I have a “Lunch With Mr. James” at Chelsea Intermediate and Mt. Laurel Elementary, and then it is on to Shades Mountain Christian School for a weather program. This is the last meteorology program of the 2008-2009 school year; I have enjoyed every single stop along the way, and look forward to a number of summer programs I have lined up. I will be at Greystone Elementary next week to speak at the 5th grade graduation. Hard to believe the school year is wrapping up.
Look for the next Weather Xtreme video here by 3:30 this afternoon…. enjoy the day!
