**No afternoon Weather Xtreme video today… not enough time between school visit and live shot at 5:00 and 6:00, sorry**
Still looks like a pretty wet weekend for Alabama. We will maintain the risk of scattered showers and storms tonight, but the rain will be more widespread tomorrow as a surface front approaches, and the air becomes more unstable thanks to colder air aloft. The NAM is printing 0.69″ for Birmingham through 84 hours, while the GFS is wetter with 1.24″, and probably closer to the truth. We figure most places will see one to two inches of rain through Sunday. The good news is that severe weather doesn’t look especially likely; the strongest storms will probably come this evening thanks to high instability values. The NWS in Huntsville has already issued a few severe thunderstorm warnings earlier this afternoon.
The high tomorrow will be around 80, but Sunday will be considerably cooler. The GFS shows a high of only 61 for Birmingham Sunday; this looks a little too cool; the NAM is suggesting 72 Sunday, and we will stick with a high around 70 on our forecast. We believe most of the rain should be over by midday Sunday, and the first few days of next week still look excellent with lower humidity, cooler nights, and a good supply of sunshine each day Monday through Wednesday. We should be in the upper 40s at daybreak Monday.
TROPICAL MISCHIEF: Global models continue the idea of a tropical low forming in the Gulf of Mexico next week; the 12Z GFS takes the system toward the Louisiana coast by the end of the week. Most early season systems bring mainly a heavy rain threat, and confidence remains low in any specific forecast now.
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I had a great time today with the third graders at Shades Mountain Christian School… be looking for them on the Pepsi KIDCAM today at 5:00 on ABC 33/40 News! Brian Peters will have the Weather Xtreme videos over the weekend; my next one will be posted by 7:00 a.m. Monday. Enjoy the weekend!
