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Let me say up front there isn’t much hope for a big, widespread rain event for Alabama during the next two weeks. You know that story. It will take some kind of tropical system to really break the back of this drought, and we will probably have to wait until we get deeper into the hurricane season for that.
SHORT TERM: An upper trough over the Atlantic coast of the U.S. will keep the best chance of rain to the east of our state this week, the general area from Jacksonville to Washington, D.C. should see some decent showers in the days ahead.
Today around here will be hot and mostly dry, with afternoon temperatures rising into the 90s again. There might be a few isolated showers over on the far eastern side of the state, but they will be few and far between. The models have hinted at some type of MCS (mesoscale convective system) rolling into North Alabama late tonight, but it is very difficult forecasting those things until they actually develop. If it does happen, it might fizzle out before reaching us.
There will be a weak “back door” type front, in association with the upper trough, that will bring a few showers or storms to Alabama tomorrow. The best chance will be over the eastern half of the state, and even there they will be scattered. We do expect temperatures to back off just a bit tomorrow in response to the front, and a few cloudy periods.
For the rest of the week, we really don’t expect anything more than isolated afternoon showers or storms, with the best chance coming over the eastern third of the state. Temperatures will remain a little above normal for June. Again, we will have to wait on the tropics to heat up, most likely, before we see any serious rain.
DROUGHT MONITOR: A quick check of climate data this morning shows the Birmingham rain deficit for the year now at 15.30 inches. Huntsville’s rain deficiency for 2007 is a whopping 17.49 inches.
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WEATHER BRAINS: We will be recording a new Weather Brains show tonight… it will be posted to the web and iTunes late tonight or early tomorrow.
This week I will be with the kids at Summer Quest at Hunter Street Baptist Church… always a great event with a huge crowd. I will have the afternoon Weather Xtreme video posted by 3:30 this afternoon!
