A powerful complex of thunderstorms that roared through Memphis around 6:45 a.m. with a peak wind gust of 46 mph, torrential rain and copious amounts of lightning is now nearing New Albany and Oxford.
It is moving east at 40 mph.
Storms are forming ahead of this MCV (mesoscale convective vortex). One especially powerful one that is severe warned is near Booneville. This storm will affect areas from Booneville to Iuka and on into the Quad Cities area of Northwest Alabama.
The comma head of the MCV is tracking along the Tennessee/Mississippi border. It may brush the Florence area.
TIMINIG
Line will reach…
…Franklin County around 9:45
…Marion County around 10:00
…Lamar County around 10:15-10:30
Additional storms are trying to organize ahead of the main system over parts of Franklin, Marion, Lamar, Fayette and northern Tuscaloosa Counties. This activity is growing in intensity and starting to showing lightning production. It will be affecting much of Walker County over the next hour and into the Jefferson County area around 9:45 a.m.
The main line will get to Birmingham around 12 or 12:30 p.m.
Instability values ahead of the complex over Central Alabama are lower, between 500-1000 j/kg. Lots of low clouds will limit its ability to grow in intensity as it moves further into the state, unless the sun can break out. And the cirrus canopy ahead of the complex will work against rising temperatures as well, blocking the sun.
There could be an opportunity for the storms to grow southward with better instability over East Central Mississippi and more sunshine over West Central Alabama from Tuscaloosa to the south.
Keep an eye on the weather as this system moves through. Expect very heavy rain, intense lightning and the potential for damaging winds.
There are signs that we may deal with another storm complex late tonight into early Monday. I was thinking that this pattern might relax after today,but we may have to rethink that in the afternoon package.
